Chakradharpur in West Singhbhum district, located in the mineral rich Singhbhum belt around 90km from Jamshedpur and once a BJP stronghold, will determine the fortunes of state BJP president Laxman Giluwa.

Giluwa, 54, a sitting MP who lost the 2019 Lok Sabha election from Singhbhum to Geeta Koda of the Congress by over 70,000 votes, is trying his luck from his home constituency Chakradharpur — part of Singhbhum Lok Sabha constituency —in the Assembly polls.

A strong anti-incumbency feeling — evident in the parliamentary polls when even Prime Minister Narendra Modi's rally in Chaibasa failed to help Giluwa retain his seat — coupled with an unhappy RSS camp and jumping into the fray of the Ajsu Party candidate are not only creating hurdles for the state BJP chief but have also complicated the poll arithmetic of the seat.

It is now a triangular contest between the BJP (Giluwa), the JMM (Sukhram Oraon) and Ajsu Party (Ramlal Munda). Sitting MLA Shashibhushan Samad, who won on a JMM ticket in 2014, is also in the fray — this time on a JVM ticket.

“Chakradharpur has been the hub of RSS activities since the time of Rudra Pratap Singh (amongst the founder figures of the BJP in Bihar-Jharkhand) and their role has been crucial in the fortunes of BJP candidates including Giluwa. However, this time the RSS camp is not happy with the autocratic style of functioning of Giluwa and is maintaining a distance. We cannot discount the anti-incumbency factor against Giluwa as he was the Singhbhum MP (till May 2019). However, the BJP cadre vote of over 20,000 will keep him in contention,” said a senior BJP district-level leader, requesting anonymity for obvious reasons.

The Chakradharpur segment of Singhbhum Lok Sabha constituency witnessed one of the poorest voting percentages (33 per cent) in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections which was attributed to anti-incumbency.

Giluwa, however, denied he was on a sticky wicket.

“I will win by a comfortable margin. The work done by the state government and the central government has instilled faith of tribals in the government. The networks of roads, culverts and drinking water projects underway are for everyone to see,” he said.

The JMM’s Sukhram Oraon, 53, who had won the Chakradharpur seat in 2005 defeating Giluwa by 19,972 votes, was equally confident.

“The anger of people against BJP-Ajsu misrule in the last few years has made my task easier. I am only working on increasing the margin of victory,” said Oraon.

However, jumping into fray of sitting MLA Shashibhushan Samad on JVM ticket is expected to cut into Oraon’s votes.

“Shashibhushan had been with the JMM all these years and had won the Chakradharpur seat in 2014 despite the Narendra Modi wave by a margin of 26,448. He will definitely affect the prospects of the JMM candidate,” said Rishikesh Deo, a professor at JLN College, Chakradhapur, and a local journalist.

To stir the poll pot further, Ajsu Party candidate Ramlal Munda, 39, who had unsuccessfully contested as an Independent in 2014 but ever since has been tirelessly working in the region to build a pro-people image, is being billed as a dark horse.

“In the last five years, Ramlal Munda can be seen everywhere — rushing road accident victims even at unearthly hours to hospitals, arranging for ambulances in remote areas for women patients, fighting for people’s rights at the sub-divisional officer’s office and helping poor people in getting ration cards. Sudeshji (Ajsu party chief Sudesh Mahto) took a calculated risk by announcing Ramlal’s name in the first list of the party that too against the BJP state president. In the tussle between the BJP and the JMM, we might see Ramlal emerging as the dark horse,” said Deo

The candidate in question, however, played it down.

“I do not belong to a big party and do not have money power to bank on. I have with me people whom I have served genuinely for more than five years and would continue to do so,” said Munda.

Chakradharpur, among the biggest revenue grossing railway division in the country and the land of Jharkhand forest movement heroes such as Devendra Champia and JMM founder figure Shailender Mahato, has 236 polling booths and over 1,80,904 voters.

• Chakradharpur votes on December 7.