So picture this: you’re sitting in an autorickshaw with three other people (as it happens in Kolkata). On your left is a man whose shirt buttons are almost popping because of his sizeable belly. His friend, the other passenger, is trying to convince him to eat cleaner. A recent diagnostic test had revealed elevated blood sugar levels. The man declares to his friend, while trying to fan himself, “Global warming is so draining.” He then opens a fizzy drink and continues, “This is why I am downing so many soft drinks… just to cool down… it’s all global warming’s fault, really!” As you no doubt realise, the gentleman is not being entirely honest. He is using an excuse that is close.
Take another example. After yesterday’s match, one might find it difficult to recollect a time when Sunil Narine struggled to score runs, but there have been such occasions. What is really at fault is a quick but really difficult to manage cognitive process known as the availability bias that all humans suffer from. It is a menace that influences our decision-making and subtly steers what we end up choosing, remembering and doing,
Heuristics: the inner circuits of our thoughts
Our brains process a lot of information, don’t they? If we process even one thing per second, that’s 60 things a minute. The actual number of things we process at any given time is mind boggling. Over centuries of evolution, our brains have developed shortcuts. These are called ‘heuristics’. They help us simplify complex decisions by allowing usage of previous information to save time and energy. These judgements often come from limited information and help save time. But like most shortcuts, they sometimes lead to biases and errors.
Over centuries of evolution, our brains have developed shortcuts called ‘heuristics’ to process information Shutterstock (Representational image)
Some of these errors are difficult to understand, but some are quite wide-ranging. One such heuristic error is called the ‘availability heuristic’. Picture this: you are about to go to a restaurant. One is exotic, one is new, one you saw on Insta and one you have been wanting to go to for a long time. Zeroing on an option seems impossible. But then, all of a sudden, the availability heuristic sneaks in and reminds you of yet another place that serves aloo paratha. Like a trickster, the availability heuristic guides our judgement by making certain information easy to recall. You probably thought of the aloo paratha place because you were talking to someone with whom you shared a lot of aloo paratha with. Suddenly you will find yourself convinced that aloo paratha is what you truly crave (with some extra butter on top!).
We see this happening all the time in sport. It happens in media coverage. A player causes an upset and suddenly they are the world’s best. Conversely, there are athletes who get stuck on recent instances of poor performance and go on a downward spiral. The availability heuristic works on the probability that if we can remember something, it is relevant and critical to assessing solutions to a problem. Therefore, whatever we can remember must be the most obvious problem.
The most common example is tactical decision-making in sport. Athletes tend to go for the option that has recently worked for them. They think, “It helped me win recently, so it will help me win again.” You must be thinking, why shouldn't we go for the successful option? We should. But when availability bias influences us, we tend to go for an option without evaluating a problem how it should be evaluated. Consider a football manager who only remembers a few plays from the previous match’s performance analysis and develops a game plan for the upcoming match on the basis of that. You would not give such a manager much chance of sustained success, would you?
Availability heuristics works very well when it comes to smaller, simpler decisions but big ones are the challenge Shutterstock (Representational image)
How to go beyond the availability trap?
It is really hard. Because all of advertising operates on utilising this availability trap to influence your consumption decisions. Whether it is a YouTube ad or an ad painted on a wall in a poor neighbourhood. Athletes succumb to this bias when they do not evaluate options effectively and stick to familiar patterns. When a couple fight, this is why they usually bring up the most recent fight. But there is a way.
When you are faced with a decision, think of how ‘big’ the decision is. Availability heuristics works very well 90 per cent of the time when it comes to smaller, simpler decisions. But the big ones are the challenge. When you find yourself leaning towards a choice, pause for a second and try to list down the justifications for that choice. This will allow you to pause your availability bias and look at alternatives. In the fast-paced world of sport, where every decision counts, this process of reducing biased automatic decision-making to clearer problem-based decision-making makes it easier to perform consistently.
