BJP seems set to lose Jharkhand as the JMM-Congress-RJD combine slowly but steadily marched towards the majority mark of 41 in the 81-member Assembly on Monday with chief minister Raghubar Das reportedly conceding defeat and Opposition leader and likely successor Hemant Soren graciously accepting congratulatory messages.

The Opposition combine was ahead of the BJP in as many as 43 seats as per the election commission website in what has been a keenly fought five-phase Assembly election held in the backdrop of widespread protests across the nation over NRC and contentious amendments to the citizenship law.

While the BJP’s leads had come down to 26 seats, it’s former ally, the Sudesh Mahto-led Ajsu Party, was leading in two. In the 81-member Assembly, 41 constitutes a majority.

Chief minister Raghubar Das was trailing BJP rebel candidate and former minister Saryu Roy, who is contesting as an Independent, by over 8,000 votes in Jamshedpur (East) constituency. Das has represented the seat five times since 1995.

The JMM was leading in 28 seats, while its alliance partner Congress was ahead in 14 and the RJD in one as leads and trends in kept changing rapidly in more than 20 seats witnessing tight contests.

Hemant Soren, the leader of the Opposition alliance, is ahead of his rivals in both Barhait and Dumka seats.

Former chief minister Babulal Marandi, whose JVM is contesting on its own and not with the Opposition gathbandhan, was leading by over 20,000 votes over his nearest rival Raj Kumar Yadav of CPI-ML(Liberation) in Dhanwar seat.

Bengal chief minister congratulated JMM leader Hemant and said that the people of Jharkhand had the faith that he would fulfil their aspirations.

“Congratulations Hemant Soren ji…. My good wishes to all brothers/sisters in Jharkhand. Elections were held during #CAA_NRC_Protest. This is a verdict in favour of citizens,” she tweeted.

Senior Congress leader P.Chidambaram urged all non-BJP parties to raise their sights and rally around the Congress to save the Constitution.

”Dented in Haryana, Denied in Maharashtra, Defeated in Jharkhand. That is the story of the BJP in 2019. All non-BJP parties must raise their sights and rally around the Congress to save the Constitution of India,” he tweeted.

Several BJP ministers including C P Singh and Anil Kumar Bauri are leading, but Raj Paliwar was trailing. Dinesh Oraon, the Speaker of the Assembly and BJP candidate, was also trailing in Madhupur.

Former deputy chief minister and AJSU Party president Sudesh Mahto was leading by 12,515 votes over JMM candidate Seema Devi from his traditional Silli seat.

The BJP's Bihar allies--the JD(U) and LJP-- contested the elections on their own and none of their candidates was leading anywhere.

The BJP contested 79 seats, supported an Independent candidate in one place and did not put up nominee against Ajsu chief Mahto.

Under a pre-poll arrangement, The JMM had the lion's share of 43 seats, while the Congress fielded nominees in 31 constituencies and Lalu Prasad's RJD in seven. The Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) contested all the 81 seats.

Ideology change?

The Congress and its ally JMM said on Sunday that the BJP’s likely defeat in Jharkhand Assembly elections, as predicted by some exit polls on December 20, would not only change the ideological map of state politics but also reflect the mood of the nation with this being the first election after the Citizenship (Amendment) Act.

The ruling BJP, however, played down such claims and said that the outcome of a state election hardly had any bearing on national politics.

Forty-one happens to be the magic number to form a government in the 82-member Jharkhand Assembly (81 elected, one nominated).

State Congress president Rameshwar Oraon told The Telegraph Online that an electoral debacle in Jharkhand would send a message across the country that BJP was losing ground. “It will also show that people were no more willing to be diverted…It will be a strong reply to the saffron party which tries to divert people’s attention from issues related to their welfare.”

Echoing its ally, the JMM also claimed that Jharkhand elections was a sort of first referendum on the controversial CAA and the BJP’s defeat would clearly spell out that the people of Jharkhand had rejected it by voting against its architects.

JMM general secretary Supriyo Bhattacharya said: “A defeat for the BJP here would send a strong message across the country that divisive politics of BJP has no takers. The outcome of Jharkhand elections is significant for national politics because this is the first election after enactment of CAA in the country.”