It will probably be some time before last Monday’s orders and observations by the three-judge Supreme Court bench headed by the Chief Justice of India are fully digested by the stakeholders in the R.G. Kar Medical College and Hospital imbroglio. At the time of writing (Tuesday afternoon), there are some stray points of clarity.

First, the appeal by the CJI to the striking junior doctors to return to work and prevent a collapse of the public health system has been interpreted by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress ecosystem as a victory of sorts. Bruised by the experience, the chief minister extended the hand of friendship and dialogue to the colleagues of ‘Abhaya’ — the junior doctor who was brutally raped and murdered at her place of work on August 9. However, the chief minister’s apparent contrition was coupled with the astonishingly insensitive assertion that it was time for the people of West Bengal to forget the agitation and immerse themselves in ‘festivities’. At the same time, the chief minister (who also holds the health portfolio) didn’t concede that her government had been guilty of any wrongdoing — whether over allegations of destruction of evidence or the attempted bribery of Abhaya’s parents.

Secondly, perhaps because of the chief minister’s rationed response to an upheaval that has rocked the state for a month, the response of the junior doctors was an insolent letter that made it clear that the agitation wasn’t going to be withdrawn. The junior doctors were also loath to await the findings of the Central Bureau of Investigation on the important question of evidence tampering and other alleged police improprieties. They persisted with their demand that Calcutta’s police commissioner, Vineet Goyal, must resign immediately.

Thirdly, going strictly by anecdotal evidence and social media postings of those who had immersed themselves in the movement, the instinctive reaction of the people involved in the Justice for Abhaya movement to the Supreme Court proceedings was one of outrage. The feeling is that the apex court had been unmindful of the public mood, had believed the spin of the state government of an imminent health crisis, and hadn’t set clear deadlines for the CBI. This disappointment also reinforced a prevailing perception that the voice of ordinary Bengalis didn’t matter to the Delhi Establishment. This, in turn, injected new life into the belief that there was a ‘setting’ between Mamata and Modi, a perception the Left has assiduously promoted.

Fourthly, there is a minority view among politicians in the anti-Mamata camp that the state government’s position in the Abhaya case is precarious. If the CBI can confirm the widespread impression that there was a blatant disregard for procedures by the Kolkata Police and even a wilful suppression of evidence, it would put Mamata Banerjee in an untenable position. If this cover-up can be complemented by the CBI establishing corrupt practices in the institutions of medical education, the chief minister would find it very difficult to cling on to her position. Under the circumstances, they feel that the CBI must be put under sustained pressure to treat this investigation as its utmost priority. A section of the Bharatiya Janata Party is particularly invested in the Supreme Court being the harbinger of a regime change in West Bengal.

Conspiracy theorists also see a curious convergence between the interests of a section of the BJP and a so-called Camac Street faction of the Trinamool Congress. Last Saturday, at a Ganesh puja hosted by a senior Union minister, I was asked by a senior BJP functionary if the prolonged agitation was being bankrolled by those in the Trinamool Congress who want Mamata to hang up her boots.

What is important is not the veracity of these whispers; they merely suggest that while there is a romance of street protests, the same turbulence offers alternative possibilities to others.

On earlier occasions when Bengal was rocked by political turbulence, there was persistent speculation that the Centre would step in to impose president’s rule. The speculations were usually baseless since Supreme Court judgments have imposed stringent safeguards against the removal of elected governments. However, the whispers kept alive a low level of political discourse.

It is intriguing that the prognosis of the governor getting set for an enlarged role has barely registered during the Justice for Abhaya movement. There could be many reasons, including the inadvisability of making a martyr of Mamata Banerjee. What is also significant is that for the moment there are no obvious political gainers from such a colossal movement, although experience suggests that the principal Opposition party is the inevitable beneficiary.

This is not to suggest that neither the Left nor the BJP has attempted to take over the movement. The Left, far more experienced than the Bengal BJP in infiltrating and moulding movements, has had nominal success in spreading Left-inclined songs and slogans among the impressionable. In and around Jadavpur, the Left has successfully used the rhythmic chant of azadi — especially when the chanting is led by a Tollywood star — to motivate younger women. It is only a matter of time before the scope of azadi is extended to issues so dear to the urban Naxals. At the same time, the Left cannot but be mindful of the significance of the Tricolour emerging as the movement’s sole identity. Its ideological posturing is unlikely to make a mark in this climate of virtuous uprightness.

The BJP’s role is a more mixed bag despite its lead role in the Nabanna march on August 27 and its 12-hour bandh the next day. It is an open secret that there is one section of the wider saffron fraternity that is wary of rocking the boat in a way that would be beneficial to the Left. Whether that section diverted energies into ineffective and largely invisible dharnas is a matter of conjecture. What can be said with certainty is that the BJP’s paucity of middle-class bhadralok bench-strength and its overall organisational weakness in the Greater Calcutta region prevented a more focussed intervention. The local party’s curious aversion to newcomers, its hounding out of the celebrities who had teamed up with it in 2021, and the non-existence of a student wing may have also determined its feeble intervention. At the same time, if the Justice for Abhaya campaign widens into a movement against 13 years of Trinamool Congress misrule and moves beyond the cultural confines of Calcutta, the BJP will be the principal beneficiary.

Yet, all conclusions are tentative. The mood in Bengal is still work in progress.