Italy’s reported decision to not renew its participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative when the current agreement ends in 2024 is the latest sign of how heightened geopolitical polarisation in recent years is adversely impacting Beijing’s relations with the West. It is tempting for India to feel vindicated about the struggles of the BRI, a planned network of Chinese-financed highways, ports and rail lines connecting Asia, Europe and Africa, that New Delhi has opposed from the start. Yet, the true test for India and its partners in the West and elsewhere will lie in building a formidable alternative to China’s global infrastructure ambitions. So far, there is little evidence that New Delhi has found a formula that can allow it to overcome its own challenges in this arena. The BRI, first announced by the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, a decade ago, has faced three major criticisms. The United States of America has viewed the initiative as China’s way of influencing key political and economic decisions of member states. Since the Donald Trump presidency, the US has put pressure on all its allies to decouple from China on economic and technology-related issues. A second criticism has focused on the indebtedness that many small, developing nations face after taking large loans they are unable to repay, leaving them vulnerable to Beijing’s political pressure. Finally, some nations have questioned whether joining the BRI brings real trade and investment benefits.

Italy’s decision to withdraw from the initiative appears rooted in a combination of the first and third factors. Especially since the start of Russia’s war on Ukraine, the West has largely accepted US policy prescriptions. Non-BRI nations in Europe have seen greater Chinese investment in recent years than Italy has. But the geopolitical risks that have hobbled the BRI have adversely affected infrastructure projects pushed by India too. The future of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, announced in September, is now unclear amid Israel’s war on Gaza; the International North-South Transport Corridor to connect India and Europe via Iran, Russia and Central Asia remains in limbo: the West’s sanctions against Tehran and Moscow’s bonhomie with Beijing are irritants for New Delhi. Meanwhile, China’s vast economic incentives remain attractive to other nations: Rome has said it still wants warm ties with Beijing. Unless India and the West can deliver a different outreach model, they will not gain from China’s stumbles. In a deeply divided world, they have their task cut out.