A casual visitor to Vienna will be forgiven for believing that — barring the inconvenience of the Danube overflowing its banks — the spectacular sunshine of a late summer is indicative of glorious times ahead. Certainly, the bustling crowds in the centre of Vienna, queuing up for sachertorte, schnitzel and other delicacies, convey the impression that this part of Europe is largely at peace with itself.

Appearances can be so utterly deceptive. Although you would never have guessed it thanks to the low-key, non-intrusive campaigning, Austria votes in a general election on September 29. Nor is there any reason to believe that this seemingly dull election will be a routine affair. If the opinion polls are to be believed, the favourite to emerge as the largest party is the nationalist (also described as far-Right in the mainstream media) Freedom Party of Austria led by Herbert Kickl. This party, which stands for a complete halt to all further immigration to Austria, even if that involves a defiance of the European Union and its very political president, Ursula von der Leyen, is leading the opinion polls with a projected popular vote of 27%. The FPOe’s support is marginally 2% higher than that enjoyed by the Centre-Right Austrian People’s Party led by the present chancellor, Karl Nehammer. The Eurocrat political Establishment is hoping that some last-minute tactical voting by the so-called ‘anti-fascists’ will see Chancellor Nehammer push the FPOe to second place, similar to the way the Social Democratic Party defied the opinion polls last week and overtook the nationalist (also called far-Right) Alternative for Germany in the German province of Brandenburg. However, earlier this year, the AfD — described by ‘respectable’ Germans as Nazis —had topped the polls in the East German province of Thüringen.

In the case of Germany, the mainstream parties were confronted with two problems. First, there is the limited personal appeal of the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, a reason why the local Social Democrats took exceptional care to keep him out of the campaign. Secondly, nearly all the mainstream parties of the Right and the Left have been grudgingly forced to admit that the generosity of the former chancellor, Angela Merkel, in admitting nearly 800,000 or more asylum seekers from North Africa, West Africa and Afghanistan in 2015 was, in the long run, socially catastrophic. Merkel’s “we can do it” boast was premised on the belief that Germany’s unending atonement for its role in World War II would facilitate a relatively untroubled integration of alien peoples into Germany. It was also believed that the shortage of unskilled labour in the EU would ensure that the new migrants weren’t a drag on Europe’s over-generous welfare system. According to the EU orthodoxy, migration symbolises economic growth and a reversal of the skewed demographic profile of native Europeans.

These assumptions have proved to be seriously flawed. First, it took a minority of the new migrants to destroy the cultural consensus of German cities and towns. Some of their behaviour towards European women crossed the bounds of decency and, predictably, provoked a backlash. It soon became apparent that the economic benefits of large-scale immigration were easily offset by the social disruption that was visible on the streets. Many Germans further realised that their simmering anger lacked a political voice in the mainstream parties. It was only fringe groups such as the AfD and others that quite enthusiastically upheld the Nazi legacy of the country that seemed to care for the interests and the feelings of the natives. There was a time gap of two decades and more before a party such as the AfD moved into the centre stage. Its areas of strength remain the territories of the erstwhile German Democratic Republic, but it is only a matter of time before it strikes roots elsewhere. The graph of its electoral support shows a steady secular climb and broadly corresponds to the rise of the National Rally in France led by Jean-Marie Le Pen. In France, as in Brandenburg and elsewhere in Germany, tactical voting has kept the nationalist parties in check, but it is only a matter of time before the resistance crumbles.

One of the factors behind the SDP’s narrow lead over the AfD in Brandenburg was Germany’s sudden decision earlier this month to police its borders and conduct checks on people entering the country. Of course, this violated the terms of the Schengen treaty that permit free movement of EU citizens and those with the relevant visa. But Berlin had to take this extraordinary step to douse the growing anger of Europeans who have seen the big entry of asylum seekers in 2015 followed by the boat people who successfully exploited outpourings of humanitarianism in Europe to game the system. There were formal protests from member-states but Germany undertaking such a step sent out a very strong message. No wonder the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, the leader of a country that has chosen to defy the EU on the matter of immigrants, sent a cheeky message to the German chancellor welcoming him to the club. The European Court of Justice has imposed a steep daily fine on Hungary for its failure to accommodate asylum seekers and Orbán is insistent that he won’t compromise on his right to choose who stays in Hungary and who doesn’t. It will be interesting to see if Hungary remains the deviant power of Europe if Germany concedes it overstepped the mark in 2015.

In propaganda terms, Orbán draws considerable mileage from being the ‘bad boy’ of Europe, a position that has involved him emerging as the conservative alternative to globalist impulses. However, even Hungary’s Fidesz Establishment knows that the weight of public opinion doesn’t automatically guarantee victory. In Austria, for example, the country’s president has indicated that he will not be easily persuaded to hand over the reins of political power to a far-Right party in case it triumphs electorally. In short, the Eurocrats are seeking a bespoke democracy. There is also the example of Italy where the threat from Brussels to hold back funds in case the national government didn’t follow a globalist and cosmopolitan trajectory has blunted the radical impulses of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

We are approaching a phenomenon whereby the EU wants to manage the democracy of its member-states so that it doesn’t cross red lines. The unelected bureaucracy in Brussels invariably wants to have the final say.