Even as Russia’s war on Ukraine crossed the grim milestone of 1,000 days last week, the prospects of a ceasefire — let alone lasting peace — seem to be dwindling. Joe Biden, the outgoing president of the United States of America, has authorised Ukraine to use American long-range missiles on targets deep inside Russia, crossing a red line laid down by the Kremlin. Soon after, the United Kingdom followed suit: British missiles have also been launched inside Russia by Ukrainian troops. The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, first threatened a harsh response. Then, Russia launched a new hypersonic missile at Ukraine that Western analysts say has never been seen before. Mr Putin has previously described Ukraine's use of weapons from other countries inside Russia as tantamount to those other nations waging war on Moscow. Hovering over all of this battlefield escalation is the shadow of Donald Trump, who will take over from Mr Biden as US president in January. Mr Trump has said that he intends to end the war in Ukraine on the first day of his presidency. That might have been campaign rhetoric but the former president, who won a stunning re-election in early November, has built his political reputation in part on his promise to not start new wars and end old ones.

Yet, while the end of a war should be welcome news for all parties directly involved and for the world at large, it is unclear what Mr Trump might try and make Russia and Ukraine agree to as part of a peace deal. At the moment, Russian forces are slowly but steadily nibbling away at parts of eastern Ukraine. Mr Trump’s vice-president-elect, J.D. Vance, has said that a peace deal could involve Ukraine giving up parts of its territory — about 20% of its internationally-recognised landmass — currently occupied by Russia and the institution of a buffer zone to separate the two armies. That is not a position acceptable, as of now, to the Ukrainian side. In many ways, the escalation in fighting in recent days appears to be an attempt by both sides to strengthen their positions on the ground before any negotiation is to begin in order to bolster their bargaining chips. Instead of restraint, Russia and Ukraine have been incentivised to step up attacks. That could make the next few weeks a particularly volatile period. The world is on edge.