An intelligence report in the United States of America has warned of a heightened threat of military conflict between India and Pakistan and between India and China, especially under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The annual threat assessment made by the US Director of National Intelligence does not indicate either any specific information to justify its claim, nor any timeline for any escalation. The report must not be seen as a cause for imminent concern. Still, the broad argument it makes suggests that Washington views as very real the possibility that India could find itself in a twin military confrontation with both China and Pakistan. That raises worrying questions about India’s preparedness for such a scenario, the efforts it is making to reduce the risks of such a potential crisis, and the diplomatic messaging it is engaging in with friends in Washington and beyond. Indian soldiers are already posted along contentious parts of the line of actual control with China but New Delhi has been unable to do much about chunks of disputed territory that China is believed to have snatched. Mr Modi’s refusal to even acknowledge Chinese presence in Indian territory makes it difficult for New Delhi to forcefully demand that it be returned. On the oceans, the Chinese navy is better equipped than India’s.

To fight China and Pakistan together will be a challenge India will want to avoid. Yet, there is scant evidence of smart efforts aimed at lowering tensions with either. Members of the Quad, which consists of the US, India, Japan and Australia, have insisted that the grouping is not an Asian Nato. There is thus no guarantee that these friends will come to India’s help beyond military supplies and other aid in the event of a conflict with China. Even that limited help is not assured when it comes to Pakistan, with which the US is increasingly strengthening ties again. The purpose of making intelligence assessments public is often to discourage those contemplating aggression from following through on their plans. All intelligence reports must also be viewed with some scepticism. Still, warnings of conflict can become self-fulfilling prophecies if all sides start viewing it as inevitable. Ukraine is a case in point. Mr Modi’s government must not fall into that trap. There is always time for diplomacy. If the US intelligence is correct, that time is now.