The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will leave its key interest rate unchanged at 6.50 per cent on June 8 and for the rest of 2023 as it waits to see the economic impact of a series of hikes over the past year, a Reuters poll of economists found.

Despite hitting an 18-month low of 4.70 per cent in April, inflation was not expected to fall to the RBI’s 4 per cent medium-term target for at least another two years, suggesting rate cuts are unlikely in the immediate future.

All 64 economists in the Reuters poll taken between May 16 and 29 expected no change to the 6.50 per cent repo rate at the conclusion of the RBI’s June 6-8 meeting.

Median forecasts showed the rate has already reached its peak and will stay there for the rest of this year, lower than the 6.75 per cent terminal rate predicted a few months ago.

“Apart from the food price risks, the outlook for inflation looks to be improving ... absent any sharp upside surprises, there is little or zero probability of further rate hikes by the RBI,” wrote Dhiraj Nim, economist at ANZ.

“Yet a pivot from their hawkish stance may take longer since inflation is still far above the 4 per cent target.”

Among those who had a longer-term view on rates, more than two-thirds of respondents, or 39 of 56, expected rates to remain unchanged until the end of the year.