In the Supreme Court decision striking down racial and ethnic preferences in college admissions, Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. had harsh words for Harvard and the University of North Carolina, calling their admissions process “elusive”, “opaque” and “imponderable”.

But the court’s ruling against the two universities on Thursday could lead to an admissions system that is even more subjective and mysterious, as colleges try to follow the law but also admit a diverse class of students.

Officials at some universities predicted that there would be less emphasis on standardised metrics like test scores and class rank, and more emphasis on personal qualities told through recommendations and the application essay — the opposite of what many opponents of affirmative action had hoped for.

“Will it become more opaque? Yes, it will have to,” said Danielle Ren Holley, who is about to take over as president of Mount Holyoke College. “It’s a complex process, and this opinion will make it even more complex.”

In an interview, Edward Blum, the founder and president of Students for Fair Admissions, the plaintiff, defended what he called “standard measurements” of academic qualifications, citing studies that showed test scores, grades and coursework helped determine which students would thrive at competitive schools.

He promised to enforce the decision, saying that Students for Fair Admissions and its counsel “have been closely monitoring potential changes in admissions procedures”.

“We remain vigilant and intend to initiate litigation should universities defiantly flout this clear ruling,” he wrote in a statement on Thursday. It would be nearly impossible, however, to eliminate any mention or suggestion of race in the admissions process — starting with applicants’ names. And in the decision, Justice Roberts specifically kept the door open to consider the racial or ethnic background in someone’s lived experience.

“Nothing in this opinion should be construed as prohibiting universities from considering an applicant’s discussion of how race affected his or her life, be it through discrimination, inspiration or otherwise,” he wrote.

Still, he warned that the personal essay could not play a stealthy role in telegraphing race. “In other words, the student must be treated based on his or her experiences as an individual — not on the basis of race,” he wrote. “Many universities have for too long done just the opposite.”

Universities, including Harvard and UNC, said on Thursday that they would comply with the ruling. But for outside sceptics, untangling a university’s intentions will be challenging. How can they know whether an admissions decision was based on an essay about personal grit — or the race of the applicant that it revealed?

“I think a very plausible outcome of this will be that schools will just cheat and say, ‘Let’s see who gets sued,’” said Richard Sander, a law professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, who has been critical of affirmative action. “The chances of an individual school getting sued are low, and the cost of suing is really high.”

Some education officials have already discussed how to leverage the essay. In a recent presentation sponsored by the American Council on Education, Shannon Gundy, the director of undergraduate admissions at the University of Maryland, said students should tailor their admissions essays to describe how race had affected their lives.

“Right now, students write about their soccer practice, they write about their grandmother dying,” she said, adding: “They don’t write about their trials and tribulations. They don’t write about the challenges that they’ve had to experience.”

Colleges could also ask for other more pointed essays, along the lines of the “diversity, equity and inclusion” statements that have become a familiar part of faculty hiring.

Holley, the incoming Mount Holyoke president, imagined a question that would say something like: “One of the core values of Mount Holyoke College is the diversity of all kinds. Please tell us why you value it, and what you think you bring to the Mount Holyoke community in terms of diversity.”

College officials are predicting that the decision will lead to an immediate drop in the number of Black and Hispanic students at selective universities, echoing the experiences of California and Michigan after those states adopted bans on affirmative action at their public universities years ago. But many of the 100 or so schools that practice affirmative action have been planning for this moment for years.

And they have already made moves towards a “race-neutral” admissions era — one that tries to follow the letter of the law while finding ways to keep the ethos of affirmative action.

New York Times News Service