A huge question mark is hanging over the G20 summit even before it gets underway. Why has China’s President Xi Jinping stayed away from the global jamboree?

Is Xi playing a long-range game which aims to downplay the importance of the US-dominated G20 so that he can build up BRICS in its place? Or, is he staying away to firmly squelch Indian ambitions of using the G20 to build its position on the world stage and lay its claim as the leader of the Global South?

London’s Financial Times is clear that Xi’s no show is an effort to cut the G20 to size. “It shakes the stature of the G20 as the pre-eminent global forum,” says the financial daily.

The FT adds: “This will be the first time that Xi or any president of China has skipped a G20 summit.”

Most Western diplomats agree. So do several retired Indian mandarins who, for obvious reasons, do not wish to be quoted.

Unsurprisingly Indian analysts have a different view at least officially. They argue that Xi was more focused on India making sure India was kept in its place and prevented from making any bid to establish a claim to be the leader of the Global South.

Additionally, there’s the fact that the government has built up its hosting of the G20 and is seeking to use it to raise India’s image globally. Says the Takshila Institution’s Manoj Kewalramani: “We have pitched G20 as India’s coming out party on the world stage and India as the leader of the global South.”

The FT quotes an Indian official saying: “China wants to spoil India’s showcase event at a time of bilateral friction over their disputed border."

Even more crucially, Xi wants to build up BRICS, as a counter narrative to G20. It is widely conceded that the last BRICS was a triumph for Xi . He succeeded in expanding the membership of BRICS against opposition. India cannot be expected to be enthusiastic about the developments.

Could this be the formal beginning of a new Cold War with two sides lined up against each other? In place of NATO and the Warsaw Pact countries there will be G20 and BRICS – however, very clearly, these will not be military alliances. Also, very importantly, these will not be exclusive alliances. India, almost certainly will not be a firm member of a China-led alliance. Many others like South Africa and also Brazil will also be in the same position, straddling both sides.

But the thread remains unchanged. BRICS will be dominated by Russia and China. The G20 by the West.

And, while Xi might like to meet US President Joe Biden, he certainly doesn't want to meet him in India, argues FT.

China has announced that it will be sending Premier Li Qiang to represent it at the G20. This is the first time that any Chinese president has skipped G20.