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regular-article-logo Friday, 22 November 2024

Wanted: A miracle worker on migration

Immigration is a divisive political topic across Europe and in Britain the issue of migrants arriving on small boats fueled gains in the general election last week by the anti-immigration party Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage

Stephen Castle London Published 12.07.24, 01:40 PM
Prime Minister Keir Starmer of the United Kingdom after delivering remarks at 10 Downing Street in London, July 5, 2024. Starmer has quickly taken up the issue of migrant arrivals since being elected last week.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer of the United Kingdom after delivering remarks at 10 Downing Street in London, July 5, 2024. Starmer has quickly taken up the issue of migrant arrivals since being elected last week. (Andrew Testa/The New York Times)

Wanted: an “exceptional leader” with experience in policing, intelligence or the military, who is ready to tackle one of the thorniest issues in British politics.

Days after coming to power, Britain’s government is recruiting a chief for a new Border Security Command to “smash,” the job description says, the smuggling gangs that help asylum-seekers arrive from France on small, often unseaworthy, boats.

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The search for the border security commander is the first action taken by the new Labour government to address the unauthorized landings that have become an embarrassing symbol of Britain’s failure to control its borders.

Immigration is a divisive political topic across Europe and in Britain the issue of migrants arriving on small boats fueled gains in the general election last week by the anti-immigration party Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage.

Britain’s new prime minister, Keir Starmer, has also scrapped an expensive plan championed by the government of his predecessor, Rishi Sunak, to send to Rwanda some of the tens of thousands of asylum-seekers who have arrived on the southern English coast. Starmer described the plan — which was stalled by legal challenges that prevented anyone being put on a flight — as “dead and buried.”

An area of where asylum seekers were being housed in Leeds, England, Sept. 21, 2023. The government has been paying around 8 million pounds a day to accommodate asylum seekers.

An area of where asylum seekers were being housed in Leeds, England, Sept. 21, 2023. The government has been paying around 8 million pounds a day to accommodate asylum seekers. (Mary Turner/The New York Times)

That has intensified the focus on his strategy to confront a problem that his predecessors failed to tackle.

Some experts say success is possible but will require better enforcement from the new Border Security Command and a far-reaching deal with European nations, particularly France.

Not everyone is optimistic.

“If people are desperate and want to come here, they will come here,” said Anand Menon, professor of European politics at King’s College London. “Even if you did smash the gangs — which is a great slogan because it sounds proactive, aggressive and you are dealing with baddies — I am very skeptical it is going to lead to a significant decrease in the numbers.”

Growing Numbers of All Migrants

Despite the headlines they generate, the small-boat crossings represent a fraction of Britain’s immigration numbers.

Overall numbers ballooned under successive Conservative governments despite Britain’s departure from the European Union, which gave British authorities complete control over who to admit legally to the country.

Net migration has roughly tripled since then, hitting almost 750,000 in 2022, before falling back slightly.

By contrast, around 45,000 people arrived on small boats in 2022 and around 30,000 in 2023. Yet they became a potent symbol of the government’s lack of grip.

Sunder Katwala, the director of British Future, a research institute, says the political problem facing Starmer is fundamentally one of optics. “It’s not the numbers, it’s the visible lack of control,” he said, noting that large numbers of people from Ukraine and Hong Kong had been admitted under special visa programs.

Starmer faces an immediate challenge because summer, with better weather over the English Channel, is peak season for boat departures and already some British media outlets are reporting on the first crossings under the new government.

Previous administrations contemplated a variety of sometimes desperate approaches, including deploying a wave machine to push boats back. They made life less hospitable for those arriving, housing some in a barge that had to be temporarily evacuated when Legionnaires’ disease was discovered there.

The main focus was the Rwanda plan, launched by Boris Johnson, a former prime minister. Johnson’s idea was to deter people from crossing the English Channel by promising to put them on one-way flights to Rwanda, where they would stay even if they were granted refugee status. But the plan was stalled by Britain’s Supreme Court. Sunak sought to break the deadlock by passing a law to circumvent the ruling, but he called an election before his plan got off the ground.

A Pledge to Upgrade Enforcement

Under Sunak’s government, Britain stepped up cooperation with France, paying millions of pounds to help fund efforts to stop boats leaving French beaches. Last year that prevented more than 26,000 attempts, according to Britain’s Home Office.

But enforcement is complex, France’s coastline is long and smuggling groups are often small and fluid.

“If you did go and find a gang, what are the barriers to entry for another gang to turn up?” said Katwala of British Future.

Yvette Cooper, Britain’s new home secretary, says the border security command will improve the situation, with “new counterterror-style powers and stronger measures to tackle organized immigration crime.” It will also step up cooperation with European enforcement agencies.

Critics say similar initiatives have been tried before. In 2022 the Ministry of Defense took over operational command of responding to small boat crossings. The following year control returned to the Home Office, the ministry now led by Cooper, which set up a unit called the Small Boats Operation Command. Drones and artificial intelligence camera technology were also deployed.

“Has the Small Boats Operational Command been disbanded?” asked the former home secretary, James Cleverly, on social media. “What is the difference between the two organizations’ functions?”

Even enforcement upgrades might be insufficient, some analysts say.

“You can stop three-quarters of the crossings but if everyone tries eight times, that just delays how long it takes for somebody to succeed,” said Katwala.

Speeding Up Asylum Assessments

As well as tackling the trafficking gangs, the new government aims to slash the backlog of asylum claims in Britain. Authorities have been paying around 8 million pounds a day (just over $10 million) to accommodate people, often in hotels, while claims are assessed.

Sunak had promised to send asylum-seekers to Rwanda for their cases to be determined there. While they remained in Britain, their cases were never assessed, meaning that even people who would have been ineligible for asylum were not returned to their home countries, swelling the number of pending cases.

Labour has promised to recruit 1,000 staff members, speed up asylum processing and accelerate the removal of failed asylum-seekers.

On average around 30% of claims for refugee status fail. So by resuming processing, the new Labour government hopes to increase the number of people returned to countries considered safe, like Nigeria, India and Bangladesh.

But Menon of King’s College London said there was as yet no plan to deal with those refused asylum who had come from nations deemed unsafe, like Afghanistan, Iran or Syria.

“What happens with those people who are processed and don’t get accepted I don’t know,” he said.

The Answer May Lie in Europe

The biggest question is whether the new government will try to strike a deal to share the responsibility for dealing with migrants with other European nations, under which France would take back some asylum-seekers who arrive in Britain by small boat.

Starmer suggested last year that he might accept some refugees arriving in Britain from Europe in exchange for such an agreement. His comments prompted a backlash, with the Conservatives claiming that this would mean Britain accepting huge numbers of migrants from the European Union.

Now the election is over, said Katwala of British Future, a deal may happen.

The government could admit a significant number of people through a legal route if European countries took back those arriving on small boats, he said.

Yet, with the far right making gains in several countries across continental Europe, and migration a contentious issue, it remains far from clear if a deal is possible.

“Immigration is such a salient and poisonous issue in other European states,” said Menon, making him wonder whether other nations in Europe “would take time and trouble dealing with what is, as far as they are concerned, a relatively small-scale problem.”

The New York Times News Service

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