Under mounting Kremlin pressure to provide more support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko of Belarus hosts a rare visit by his Russian counterpart, Vladimir V. Putin, on Monday.

Lukashenko, Putin’s closest ally, relies on Moscow for finance, fuel and security assistance to maintain his 28- year grip on power. The two men have met at least six times since Russia launched its fullscale invasion of Ukraine in February, using Belarus as a staging ground for its abortive assault on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. But those meetings were all outside of Belarus, mostly in Russia.

After months holed up at the Kremlin and at his country retreat near Moscow, keeping a distance from Russia’s military and diplomatic setbacks, Putin has in recent weeks sought to project a more hands-on image. His trip on Monday to Minsk follows a visit last week to Kyrgyzstan and a visit on Friday to a Russian military command post.

As Russia has floundered on the battlefield, Lukashenko has allowed Moscow to use his territory to launch missiles and bombing runs against Ukraine, but has so far resisted pressure from the Kremlin to send in his own troops. In remarks reported by the state news agency Belta, the Belarusian strongman insisted that his meeting with Putin would focus on economic matters, particularly the price of Russian natural gas, on which Belarus is heavily dependent.

But he conceded that “of course, we will not avoid” military issues and “we will talk about defence capability and the security of our state”.

The meeting follows repeated warnings from Ukraine in recent days that Russian forces could be preparing a new offensive from Belarus aimed either at making another effort to seize Kyiv, only around 88km from the Belarusian border, or at disrupting the flow of western arms into Ukraine from Poland.

But many military experts believe that Russia’s military has been so badly battered by nearly 10 months of war that it is no condition to launch a new offensive from Belarus.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based research group, said in a report published on Friday that a new Russian thrust into Ukraine was unlikely as “there are still no indicators that Russian forces are forming a strike force in Belarus”.

(New York Times News Service)