President Biden said on Friday that the US has intelligence showing that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has made a final decision to reject diplomatic overtures and invade Ukraine, in what Biden said would be a “catastrophic and needless war of choice” in eastern Europe.

Speaking from the Roosevelt Room in the White House, Biden said “we have reason to believe the Russian forces are planning to and intend to attack Ukraine in the coming week, in the coming days”, adding that “we believe that they will target Ukraine’s capital, Kiev, a city of 2.8 million innocent people”.

Asked whether he thinks that Putin is still wavering about whether to invade, Biden said, “I’m convinced he’s made the decision.” Later, he added that his impression of Putin’s intentions is based on “a significant intelligence capability”.

Still, Biden implored Russia to “choose diplomacy”.

“It is not too late to de-escalate and return to the negotiating table,” Biden said, referring to planned talks between secretary of state Antony J. Blinken and Russia’s foreign minister on Thursday. “If Russia takes military action before that date, it will be clear that they have slammed the door shut on diplomacy.”

In the hours before Biden’s late afternoon remarks, Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine called for mass evacuations in two contested regions of the country, claiming, with little evidence, that Ukraine’s military was about to launch a large-scale attack there, an assertion that appeared intended to provoke Russian military intervention.

The ominous messaging of the rebels in the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk was loudly echoed by Moscow, raising fears that Russia was setting the stage for an imminent invasion that could ignite the biggest conflict in Europe in decades.

The call by the Russian-backed separatists for evacuations came as they blamed Ukraine for an array of provocations, including shelling along the front lines between Ukraine and the separatist forces, and an explosion involving an empty car that pro-Moscow news outlets said belonged to the head of the region’s security services.

Biden, who had just concluded a video call with a dozen western leaders, rejected the claims as lies intended by Putin to inflame the situation on the ground and provide a pretext for war — something the US and other European leaders had been warning about for weeks.

He cited the bombing of a Ukrainian kindergarten as a Russia-backed provocation. And he pointed to Russian separatist accusations that Ukraine was planning to launch a major offensive attack as evidence of Russian efforts to justify military action with misinformation.

“There is simply no evidence to these assertions, and it defies basic logic to believe the Ukrainians would choose this moment, with well over 150,000 troops arrayed on its borders, to escalate a yearlong conflict,” Biden said.

The President’s comments are the clearest indications of just how close the world may be to the largest conflict in Europe since World War II. He took the highly unusual course of specifically predicting the time frame and parameters of the invasion.

New York Times News Service