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regular-article-logo Monday, 23 December 2024

US presidential bid 2024, the Republican race: Voters look past legal problems to give Donald Trump a big victory in Iowa caucuses

Should Trump ultimately prevail as the nominee, it would set up a historic potential rematch in November with President Joe Biden that could play out on both the campaign trail and in the courtroom

Shane Goldmacher Des Moines, Iowa Published 16.01.24, 11:57 AM
Former President Donald Trump greets attendees at a campaign rally in Indianola, Iowa, on Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024, the day before the Iowa caucuses

Former President Donald Trump greets attendees at a campaign rally in Indianola, Iowa, on Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024, the day before the Iowa caucuses Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times

Donald Trump won the Iowa caucuses in a landslide Monday, a crucial first step in his bid to reclaim the Republican nomination for the third consecutive election as voters looked past his mounting legal jeopardy and embraced his vision of vengeful disruption.

Trump’s record-breaking triumph, called by The Associated Press on Monday night only 31 minutes after the caucuses had begun, gave the former president an important win in a state that had rejected him eight years ago. But on a bitter cold night, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis finished in a distant second place, according to the AP, in a state where he had increasingly banked his candidacy, which nonetheless could provide him some much-needed money and momentum.

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With Trump far ahead in most polls, much of the focus heading into the caucuses had been on the race for second, as DeSantis and Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina and ambassador of the United Nations, battled for the mantle of Trump’s chief rival. With DeSantis finishing ahead of Haley in Iowa, and her leading him in New Hampshire, the possibility of a two-person race remains elusive for Trump foes, who fear a split field will ease his path to the nomination.

Even before the Iowa results were in, DeSantis had symbolically decided to fly directly to South Carolina after Iowa instead of to New Hampshire, which votes Jan. 23 and where Haley is making her next stand.

Trump is the first former president in the modern era who has sought to return to the White House. On Monday, he was on pace to exceed the Republican record of 13 percentage points for the largest victory in a contested caucus. He was also close to winning an outright majority of more than 50%, a critical psychological barrier for those in the party still hoping to stop him.

Should Trump ultimately prevail as the nominee, it would set up a historic potential rematch in November with President Joe Biden that could play out on both the campaign trail and in the courtroom.

A spokesperson for DeSantis, Andrew Romeo, said in a statement that the early declaration of Trump’s victory was “absolutely outrageous.” He borrowed a phrase from Trump to accuse the news media of participating “in election interference by calling the race before tens of thousands of Iowans even had a chance to vote.”

Regardless of what comes next, Trump’s Iowa victory amounts to a remarkable resurrection of a political career that had once appeared in tatters. He was impeached in the final days of his first White House term for his role in inciting the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the Capitol. His subsequent acquittal by the Senate left open the possibility of this return campaign.

Trump has spent the past three years methodically consolidating power to ready his own restoration. Even his four felony indictments, and his status as the only former U.S. president to face criminal charges, have united many Republicans behind his claims of “election interference” and victimhood at the hands of Democrats and the “deep state.”

Now, the Republican calendar will turn to New Hampshire, where polling shows Trump is expected to face a strong challenge from Haley in a state where independent voters can also cast ballots. Trump’s campaign and his allied super PAC have already been blanketing that state with anti-Haley advertising, a sign of its competitiveness before the Jan. 23 primary.

DeSantis had entered 2023 as the party’s clear alternative to Trump. But early struggles, both financially and electorally, forced him to retrench and make his stand in Iowa, where he won the backing of the state’s popular Republican governor and a key evangelical network. His super political action committee knocked on more than 935,000 doors statewide.

Even with Trump far ahead, Haley’s allied super PAC spent more than $22 million on attacks against DeSantis just in Iowa, hoping to squash his candidacy in the very first state (the group had spent nothing opposing Trump in Iowa, according to federal records). Heading into the caucuses, DeSantis had pledged to run a “long” and “scrappy” campaign regardless of the result and symbolically decided to fly directly to South Carolina after Iowa instead of to New Hampshire, a state where he has been polling in the single digits.

Trump’s team believes a string of early victories — first in Iowa, and then in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina — will position him for a blowout on Super Tuesday, all but locking up the nomination by March, when many of the delegates are up for grabs. But they worry an early loss could lead to a more protracted fight.

In Iowa, harsh winter conditions had scrambled turnout expectations and preparations for all the campaigns in recent days. First, a blizzard forced a slew of event cancellations. Then, subzero temperatures and a numbing wind chill Monday prompted warnings of “life-threatening cold” from the National Weather Service.

But supporters of Trump, who describes his followers as part of a broader “MAGA movement,” nonetheless turned out, animated by his dark portrait of a nation in decline and his apocalyptic rhetoric about wresting a country controlled by the left back from the brink. Trump’s vows to exact retribution on his political enemies have earned warnings from academics and Democrats of a drift toward authoritarianism but have won cheers from his rapturous crowds.

Long before the caucuses, Biden had begun to center his reelection bid on casting Trump as an existential threat to American democracy, citing his predecessor’s refusal to accept the results of the past election and his impeding of the peaceful transfer of power in 2020.

A special counsel appointed by the Justice Department, Jack Smith, has indicted Trump over his role in that postelection period, accusing him of trying to subvert the will of the people. The case could go to trial this year — before the general election.

The election subversion case is only one of four indictments that Trump faced in 2023, along with charges that cover his handling of classified documents, his hush-money payments to an adult film actress during his 2016 campaign and his attempts to reverse the 2020 election results in Georgia.

If Trump does become the nominee, the 2024 campaign will have few modern parallels.

He is poised to split his time between the campaign trail and his criminal cases as well as additional civil cases. And soon, the Supreme Court is expected to weigh in on the basic question of whether states can ban Trump from the ballot outright over his role in the Jan. 6 riot. A different case making its way through the federal courts will test Trump’s claim that he should be immune from prosecution.

Haley has made the uncertainty and turbulence that nominating Trump would bring to the contest a central part of her pitch. “Chaos,” she has said, “follows him.”

The New York Times News Service

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