In a move that reflects the delicate balancing of regional power, India briefly mulled a covert strategy to remove Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu after his election in late 2023, The Washington Post reports.

Muizzu’s promise to expel Indian troops and strengthen ties with China presented a significant challenge to India’s influence in the Maldives – a critical partner in the Indian Ocean region. The stakes were high, as the Maldives sits on vital maritime routes, making it a flashpoint in the ongoing rivalry between India and China.

According to The Washington Post, India’s intelligence agency, R&AW, explored a plan called the "Democratic Renewal Initiative" to oust Muizzu.

There was no immediate response from the government to the report, but the publication noted that it had previously declined to comment.

The plan involved bribing 40 members of the Maldivian parliament, including members of Muizzu’s own party, to vote for his impeachment. It also aimed to secure support from senior military and police officers, as well as criminal gangs, to ensure success. The operation’s estimated cost: $6 million, which India was expected to bankroll.

“By January 2024, agents acting on behalf of R&AW began quietly discussing with Maldivian opposition leaders the possibility of removing Muizzu,” The Washington Post reported.

Both India and China view the Maldives as a key piece in their broader regional strategies. For India, keeping the Maldives in its sphere is essential for both economic stability and security. A stronger Chinese presence there could have lasting implications for India’s maritime interests.

In the weeks following the initial planning, Opposition politicians in the Maldives put together detailed plans to bribe 40 parliamentarians, including some from Muizzu’s party, to vote for his impeachment.

The plan also called for payments to 10 senior army and police officers and three influential criminal gangs to ensure the President’s removal. To fund the operation, conspirators sought 87 million Maldivian rufiyaa, or $6 million, with India expected to provide the money.

However, after months of deliberation, the effort failed to gather enough parliamentary support, and India ultimately decided to back away from funding or pursuing the plan, The Washington Post reported. Analysts believed the risks of destabilising the Maldives and damaging diplomatic ties outweighed any potential benefits.

One Maldivian politician who regularly met with the Indian Embassy in Male revealed that the resident R&AW intelligence officer had expressed personal doubts about the viability of impeachment.

“Indian officials feared that removing a newly elected President might destabilise the Maldives, an already fragile and politically unstable country vulnerable to religious extremism,” the newspaper reported.

Mohamed Aslam, a member of the Opposition MDP and former Speaker of parliament, emphasised to The Washington Post, “India doesn’t want to see a neighbouring country go bankrupt. If the economy collapses, it could trigger other problems, like extremism.”

The decision reflected India’s cautious strategy of managing its rivalry with China without resorting to direct confrontation, analysts said.

This episode underscored the fierce competition for influence in the Indian Ocean. China has made significant strides in the Maldives through its Belt and Road Initiative, funding major infrastructure projects, such as a $200 million bridge, the newspaper said.

These projects have raised concerns in New Delhi about the potential for Chinese military or surveillance operations on the island nation.

India, traditionally a close ally of the Maldives, had backed pro-India leaders like Mohamed Nasheed and Ibrahim Solih. But with Muizzu’s election, India found itself facing new challenges in the region.

Both China and India view the Maldives as a strategic asset, using loans, infrastructure projects, and political leverage to advance their interests. For India, maintaining stability and influence in the Maldives is critical, not only for economic reasons but also for its security in the Indian Ocean.

India's attempts to counter Muizzu included support for the Opposition Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) during the 2023 elections, with Indian poll analysts and campaign workers reportedly assisting the MDP. However, when the MDP lost, India was forced to reconsider its strategy. After Muizzu’s victory, Indian officials explored potential ways to remove him from power. However, these efforts failed due to the lack of sufficient parliamentary support.

Muizzu alarmed Indian officials soon after his election by making his first state visit to Turkiye with which India has not altogether friendly relations. His second trip was a highly publicised state visit to China where he met with President Xi Jinping and other senior leaders.

By late 2024, Muizzu appeared to shift his position, calling India a “valued partner” during a state visit to New Delhi. In response, India pledged to assist the Maldives with military and defence projects, signalling a thaw in relations.

Observers suggest that Muizzu’s softened stance was driven more by economic realities than outside pressure, as the Maldives heavily relies on Indian financial aid and trade.

One unnamed member of Muizzu’s party explained, “The President reversed course not out of fear, but out of fiscal necessity.”

Earlier in 2024 the State Bank of India deferred $100 million in debt payments giving Muizzu financial breathing space. China, however, indicated that it would not make similar concessions. The Maldives has debt of over $8 billion to China and India – this amounts to 120 per cent of its GDP.