Sunday’s presidential election in Turkey is being watched carefully in western capitals, Nato headquarters and the Kremlin, with Turkey’s longtime mediating role in the complex and often vexing relations between the parties riding on the outcome.

With President Recep Tayyip Erdogan slightly trailing his challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, in recent polls, the prospect that the Turkish leader could lose the election is concentrating diplomatic minds.

Officially, people on the western side won’t talk about their preferences, to avoid being accused of interfering in Turkey’s domestic politics. But it is an open secret that European leaders, not to speak of the Biden administration, would be delighted if Erdogan were to lose.

As Carl Bildt, the former Swedish Prime Minister, said on Friday, “We all want an easier Turkey,” a strategically important member of Nato that has, under Erdogan, become an increasingly troublesome partner for the EU, which has largely abandoned the idea of Turkish membership.

Russia, too, has much riding on the election’s outcome. Under Erdogan, Turkey has become Russia’s indispensable trading partner and at times a diplomatic intermediary, a relationship that has assumed an even greater importance for the Kremlin since the invasion of Ukraine.

Throughout his 20 years in power, Erdogan has pursued a nonaligned foreign policy that has frequently frustrated his putative Western allies and provided a welcome diplomatic opening for Moscow — perhaps never more so than after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

By refusing to enforce western sanctions on Moscow, Erdogan has helped undermine efforts to isolate the Kremlin. At the same time, the stumbling Turkish economy has feasted recently on heavily discounted Russian oil. Erdogan has further irritated his allies by blocking Sweden’s bid for membership in Nato, insisting that Stockholm first turn over scores of Kurdish refugees in the country.

New York Times News Service