The Tories lost two out of three parliamentary byelections held on Thursday in constituencies where the Conservative party previously enjoyed huge majorities in excess of 20,000, suggesting Rishi Sunak will find it hard to remain prime minister after next year’s general election.
A change in government would mean a delay in the Free Trade Agreement currently being negotiated between the UK and India and possible complications on such matters as intelligence sharing and human rights.
A Tory majority of 20,137 in Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire, where Nigel Adams quit in solidarity with Boris Johnson, became a Labour one of 4,161 for Keir Maher, who, at 25, becomes the youngest member of the Commons.
And in Somerton and Frome in Somerset, where David Warburton quit as the absentee Conservative MP after being accused of sexual misconduct and drug taking, the Tory majority of 19,213 became one of 11,008 for the Liberal Democrats’ Sarah Dyke.
There was, how ever, a small crumb of comfort for Rishi. The Tories held on by a wafer-thin majority of 495 after a recount in Boris’s old seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip in West London.
The 80-seat majority which Boris won in 2019 has been reduced to 56. Two more byelection in Tory seats — Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth — are expected soon. The BBC’s political editor, Chris Mason, posed the question: “This set of elections amounted to a single question: just how badly did the Conservatives do? The answer — badly. But not as badly as they had feared. The prospect of a crushing three-nil defeat — beaten everywhere — averted.”
Britain’s top polling guru, Prof John Curtice, warned that “the Tories should not take too much comfort” from their win in Uxbridge, pointing to the average drop in Conservative support across all three seats.
“It would seem unwise for Tory MPs to draw any conclusion other than that their party is still in deep electoral trouble,” he stressed.
A hung parliament is possible, Curtice acknowledged.
Greg Hands, the Tory chairman, said the backdrop to Thursday’s byelections “wasn’t particularly favourable to us” but argued the result in Selby and Ainsty was caused by “Conservative voters staying at home” and that the party needed to work to get them “back to the polls”.
Rishi has made history by becoming Britain’s first Indian-origin Prime Minister but although he has stabilised the economy, which was crashed by Liz Truss during her 44-day tenure in 10 Downing Street, the Prime Minister is not seen to have delivered on the five pledges he wants to be judged by — “halve inflation this year, grow the economy, cut the national debt, cut National Health Service waiting lists, and stop the boats” with migrants crossing the English Channel.