Elderly Indians living in multi-generational families in the UK are at particular risk from omicron this Christmas even though early analysis from Imperial College London and Edinburgh University suggests that this mutation of the Covid virus is milder than the Delta variant.

The research in the UK appears to be pointing in the same direction as the data from South Africa, scientists say.

According to researchers from Imperial College London, there was a 40 per cent lower risk of being hospitalised with omicron compared with Delta, while Edinburgh University put the reduction closer to 65 per cent.

The studies from South Africa, where the population is much younger, have the equivalent figure at 70-80 per cent. But since the number of daily Covid infections in the UK has exceeded 100,000 — it was 106,122 on Wednesday — a smaller percentage of a very large number could still overwhelm hospitals.

Scientists are pointing out that omicron is circulating mainly among young people who could infect their parents and grandparents over the Christmas period — and this is where the danger lies for Indians who tend to live in multi-generational families.

The effect of boosters is waning — and there is already talk that older and vulnerable people may soon need a fourth jab as in Israel.
Prof. Azra Ghani, chair in infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial, warned more data was needed on the impact of omicron on older people.

She told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Wednesday: “Omicron has really been circulating in a younger population and I think the big concern is that over this Christmas period there’s going to be a lot more intergenerational mixing, and we don’t know yet what that severity pattern might look like in the oldest age groups.”

Epidemiologist Prof. Andrew Hayward of University College London, who is a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group , said that while data suggesting omicron is less severe is “undeniably good news”, the impact on more vulnerable elderly people is not yet clear.

“Perhaps we can downgrade this from a hurricane to a severe storm,” he went on, adding “we’re definitely not out of the danger zone”.
A big problem at the moment is that the public is not being given unbiased information by Right wing newspapers and their extremist columnists, who have, firstly, attacked scientists for allegedly giving out scare stories, and, secondly, twisting such data as is available to insist the Prime Minister Boris Johnson was wrong to bring in any restrictions and would be undermining his position as Prime Minister if he tightened them any further.

The new data has not been peer reviewed and is heavily qualified.

The “early analysis” from Imperial College states: “The estimates suggest that Omicron cases have, on average, a 15-20 per cent reduced risk of any hospitalisation and an approximately 40-45 per cent reduced risk of a hospitalisation resulting in a stay of one or more nights.

“The estimates suggest that individuals who have received at least two doses of either AstraZeneca, Pfizer or Moderna vaccines have substantially reduced risk of hospitalisation compared with primary infections with Delta in unvaccinated individuals, even if protection against infection has been largely lost against the Omicron variant.”

Prof Neil Ferguson from Imperial College commented: “Our analysis shows evidence of a moderate reduction in the risk of hospitalisation associated with the Omicron variant compared with the Delta variant. However, this appears to be offset by the reduced efficacy of vaccines against infection with the Omicron variant. Given the high transmissibility of the Omicron virus, there remains the potential for health services to face increasing demand if Omicron cases continue to grow at the rate that has been seen in recent weeks.”

Meanwhile, Edinburgh University offered this “interpretation” of its analysis: “These early national data suggest that Omicron is associated with a two-thirds reduction in the risk of Covid-19 hospitalisation when compared to Delta. Whilst offering the greatest protection against Delta, the third/booster dose of vaccination offers substantial additional protection against the risk of symptomatic Covid-19 for Omicron.”

The two reports have been seized on by far right commentators to claim Boris is being told by scientists no further action is action – which is definitely not the case.

Dr Jim McMenamin, the national Covid-19 incident director for Public Health Scotland, said the University of Edinburgh’s findings were “a qualified good news story”, but that it was “important we don’t get ahead of ourselves”.

He said a “smaller proportion of a much greater number of cases” could still mean a “substantial” number of people may experience severe Covid infections which could lead to hospitalisation.

It has been revealed that Princess Anne will not be joining the 95-year-old Queen for Christmas lunch at Windsor Castle – her husband, retired Vice Admiral Sir Timothy Laurence, 66, is recovering from Covid.