The Taliban have been in Kabul for six days and fevered speculation is raging about who will form the next government. There is talk that Hamid Karzai, the former Afghan president who held office between 2001 and 2014, could end up playing a leading role in the government or even emerge as its head.

Karzai, who stayed with his three young daughters in Kabul after the Taliban entered the city, has emerged as a key negotiator with the group’s different factions and also possibly even with leaders of the Northern Alliance.

Karzai and Abdullah Abdullah, who was the chief peace negotiator with the Taliban and headed what was called the National Reconciliation Council, have met most crucially with Anas Haqqani, the younger brother of Haqqani Group leader Sirajuddin Haqqani. Anas was released from an Afghan prison in 2019 in exchange for two American hostages.

Abdullah Abdullah Reuters

Karzai startled Afghanistan watchers by releasing a photograph of himself with his daughters in Kabul soon after the Taliban entered the city and most foreigners were fleeing. “I am here in Kabul with my girls and I ask the Taliban to provide security and safety for the people," he said in a video message.

The former president said in a statement posted on social media that he is one of the leaders of a “coordination council” formed to meet with the Taliban and manage the transfer of power. The two other leaders of the council are the head of the High Council for National Reconciliation, Abdullah Abdullah, and the leader of Hizb-e-Islami, Gulbudin Hekmatyar.

Hekmatyar told Afghanistan’s Tolonews that formal talks between the Afghan political leaders and the Taliban will start once the Taliban leaders arrive in Kabul. He said there are “indications” that the Taliban wants to establish an “inclusive” government, the news service reported.

Gulbudin Hekmatyar Twitter

Exploratory talks

There are also unconfirmed reports that Karzai and Abdullah have held exploratory peace talks with the Northern Alliance, the Taliban’s strongest rivals. The Northern Alliance is regrouping in its stronghold, the Panjshir Valley, where the Taliban does not hold sway, and it has been joined there by Amrullah Saleh, the country’s first vice-president under the now overthrown Ashraf Ghani government.

Saleh has declared that as the first vice- president of the elected government he automatically became the country’s president after Ashraf Ghani fled Afghanistan reportedly with a helicopter and four cars carrying huge amounts of money. Ghani, who said he fled to avoid being hanged by the Taliban like former president Mohammad Najibullah was in 1996, now has surfaced in the UAE which says he is being given safe haven on “humanitarian grounds.” Saleh, who is a former chief of the Afghan intelligence service has vowed he will resist the Taliban.

Karzai’s sudden return to prominence has triggered a flurry of rumours that he might head, or be part of, the ruling council that is expected to be announced in the next few days. This council might report to a Supreme Leader, who will probably be Haibatullah Akhundzada, who appears to be the Taliban’s top leader. However, Taliban sources insist one of their own leaders will get the top job in the new Government. Haibatullah's non-appearance in Kabul has however triggered rumours that he may be in Pakistan army custody or even dead.

Several advantages

The former president has several plus points that enable him to be a key negotiator and even be a part of the incoming government. He was chosen as the leader of the powerful Popalzai tribe after his father was assassinated. Abdul Ghani Baradar, a co-founder of the Taliban who has been one of its key negotiators during peace talks, is from the Sadozai tribe which is a sub-group of the Popalzais. In the video in which Karzai appeared, he appealed to people to stay calm. “I would like to inform Kabul residents that my family and I, my daughters, are all here," he said. Karzai’s youngest daughter was born in India.

Karzai served as the president of Afghanistan from 2001 to 2014 and is reported to have maintained links with all sides in the conflict. He could also help the Taliban to negotiate the changed international scenario since they were last in power. The US has blocked the release of Afghanistan assets worth around $9.5 billion. Karzai was said to be a favourite of US President George W. Bush but his standing declined after Barack Obama became president. He is still seen as a unifying figure according to international observers.

The Taliban has been eager to portray themselves as sophisticated players and even held a press conference where they took questions and declared women would be allowed to continue working but would be subject to “Islamic rules”.

Intense speculation

There has been intense conjecture about who would lead the Afghan government ever since the Taliban made their appearance on the outskirts of Kabul. The first name thrown up was 81-year-old Ali Ahmad Jalali, a former interior minister and colonel in the Afghan army. Ali has been a US citizen since 1987 and lives in Maryland.

When it appeared Ali was not in the running, the speculation settled on Baradar, who was reportedly captured in a joint CIA-ISI operation in 2010. He was jailed in Pakistan till 2018 and then released and sent to Doha to take part in peace deliberations. It’s said the Pakistanis never let him go far without a minder. His family is reported to be still in Pakistan.

The Haqqani factor

Anas Haqqani, who Karzai held talks with, is likely to also be a part of the ruling council. The Haqqanis have been the most disciplined fighting wing of the Taliban and have been blamed for most of the bombings and other terrorist attacks that have taken place in Kabul in recent months. It is closely linked to the ISI, Pakistan’s intelligence agency and mostly based in Pakistan.

Anas Haqqani AP file picture

Whether Abdullah Abdullah will play any part in the new government is unknown. He is a Tajik but has a Pashtun stepfather. Most of the Talibans are Pashtuns.

It is unclear how quickly any talks might proceed or what headway they might make. One international observer predicted that the Northern Alliance would stretch out talks while they build up their fighting strength. Currently, they have only a small number of fighters.

On the way to Kabul, the Taliban bypassed the Panjshir Valley where the Northern Alliance has its power base. The Northern Alliance is led by Ahmad Massoud, the son of Ahmad Shah Massoud, known as the Lion of Panjshir, who was assassinated a few hours before 9/11 occurred. India had close ties with the NA and Ahmad Shah Massoud. However, the NA is just a shadow of its former self and is hemmed in by the Panjshir Valley without access to Afghanistan’s international borders.