Israel’s retaliatory attack on Iran on Saturday morning marked the start of a new and more dangerous phase in the two countries’ yearslong conflict, but it appeared, at least for now, to have stopped short of prompting an all-out war, analysts said.
The attack was the first time that Israel has publicly acknowledged conducting a military operation inside Iran, after years of maintaining a strategic silence about its assassinations and acts of sabotage on Iranian soil. It was also a rare attack by a foreign air force in Iran since its war with Iraq in the 1980s.
Although it was a significant moment, the attack did not immediately provoke an Iranian threat to retaliate, easing fears that two of the most powerful militaries in West Asia were on the point of uncontrollable conflict.
“The years of shadow war have fully entered open conflict — albeit a managed conflict, for now,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, a Berlin-based research group. “Tehran can swallow these strikes against military facilities, without retaliating in a way that invites further Israeli action,” she added.
After weeks of pressure from the US to reduce the scope of its attack, Israel avoided striking sensitive nuclear enrichment sites and oil production facilities in retaliation for the large barrage of ballistic missiles that Iran fired at Israel early this month.
On Saturday, Israel’s fighter jets focused instead on roughly 20 military installations, including air defence batteries, radar stations and missile production sites, according to Israeli officials.
The comparatively contained focus of those attacks allowed Iranian institutions to project a sense of normality on Saturday morning. The aviation authority reopened Iran’s airspace, and the state-run news agencies broadcast images and footage of life returning to normal — all signs, analysts said, that Iran’s leadership was trying to play down the significance of Israel’s attack and reduce domestic expectations of a major Iranian response.
“This is the beginning of a new phase, a dangerous one, with many more sensitivities,” said Yoel Guzansky, an Israeli expert on Iran at the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv-based research group. “But the music that I hear from Iran is basically saying, ‘Oh, this is nothing.’”
As a result, he added: “It is possible for the two sides to close this round at least, and that we will not see an Iranian retaliation — or if we see it, it will be small in scale.”
Still, analysts warned that even if the latest escalation ebbs, it has edged Iran and Israel further along a path toward an unmanageable conflict.
For years, the two countries fought a clandestine war in which each side undermined the other’s interests and provided support for the other’s opponents, while rarely taking responsibility for their own attacks. That covert conflict turned into an open confrontation when war broke out last year between Israel and Hamas, Iran’s ally in Gaza.
After the Hamas-led attack in Israel last October unleashed Israel’s devastating war in Gaza, Iran’s other proxies in West Asia, including Hezbollah, began striking Israel in solidarity with their Palestinian ally. In turn, Israel scaled up its attacks on Iranian interests around the region, leading to direct exchanges between the two countries, first in April and now in October.
Some analysts fear that Israel, though comparatively restrained on Saturday, was setting the stage for a bigger strike following the US presidential election in early November. The vote will set in motion a transition of power during which Washington’s influence and focus on the Iran-Israel conflict will be diminished.
By damaging Iran’s air defences and radar system, Israel has made it easier for its fighter jets to attack Iran in the future, a move that may either deter Tehran from responding forcefully, or embolden Israel to try further attacks, or both.
“There will be a sigh of relief across Iran and the region that the US managed to restrain Netanyahu for now,” Geranmayeh said, referring to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel. “But the fear is that this is a temporary restraint leading up to the US elections. The ‘lame duck’ phase ahead could be a moment where we see renewed Israeli attacks inside Iran — as a perceived golden window to further depleteIranian capabilities.”
New York Times News Service
