Just about anything is still possible in this year’s midterm elections. Everything from a Democratic hold in the Senate and a fairly close race for the House to something like a Republican rout is well within the range of realistic possibilities on Tuesday.

Why such a wide range? With so many races on edge, it wouldn’t take much for the final outcome to feel very good, or very bad, for either party.

In the Senate, the races likeliest to decide control remain exceptionally close, with the poll averages showing essentially a dead-heat in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona and even New Hampshire. With just a few lucky breaks, either party could win control.

There’s a similar story in the House. While Republicans are plainly favoured to win the chamber, dozens of races are toss-ups.

It wouldn’t take much for Democrats to keep the race fairly close, perhaps delaying a call on House control for many hours or perhaps even days.

On the other hand, it wouldn’t take much for Republicans to pick up dozens of seats, leaving the impression that 2022 was something like a wave election.

There is also the possibility of more surprising outcomes: a true Republican landslide or a Democratic hold on Congress.

The polls have been wrong before.

The voters, after all, have the final say.

Here’s an overview of what might still happen — how it might happen, why so much remains possible, and what signs to look for on election night.

Clear Republican win

With five critical Senate races and dozens of House races looking like toss-ups, even some random breaks could give Republicans something that feels like a rout: control of the Senate and a big gain in the House.

The election could still be fairly close.

It might still take days to resolve. But it wouldn’t take much for the final scoreboard to look more like a rout than a close and competitive race.

In almost every critical race, the final Times/Siena polls suggested that voters preferred Republican control of Congress and disapproved of President Biden’s performance, but Democrats often had the advantage of incumbency or Republicans had the disadvantage of an unpopular candidate.

But Republicans could quickly have a great night if even a small share of voters swallows their doubts about unpopular nominees or discards their warm feelings about longtime Democratic incumbents.

It might take a long time before a clear Republican success becomes a certainty. It might take days before critical races in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada are resolved.

Georgia might take until December if no candidate clears the 50 per cent necessary to avoid a runoff.

But on Tuesday night, the signs of a clear Republican win might still start to pile up.

Republicans would quickly register comfortable wins in North Carolina, Florida and Ohio.

New Hampshire might be close, even if the Democrats pull it out. Wisconsin would be in the Republican column by bedtime.

A series of crucial House districts in the Southeast, like North Carolina’s 13th and Virginia’s Second, might swing into the Republican column.

The odds of Democrats holding on in the pivotal but slower-counting states would start to look pretty bleak.

Feels-like-a-win

Democrats cling to a five-seat majority in the House, but if they get a few breaks, the night still might leave them with a lot to feel good about — even if the scoreboard still shows the Republicans gaining seats and taking the House.

It might even feel like a Democratic win, given how the polls have trended toward Republicans in recent weeks. This feels-like-a-win mainly comes down to holding control of the Senate.

To hold the chamber, the party will probably need to win three of the four most critical races: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

Democrats would start to feel a lot better if they could add a few more feel-good wins to the ledger, like beating “stop the steal” Republican candidates for governor in Pennsylvania and Arizona or a victory for abortion rights in Michigan.

It might just be enough for Democrats to take a glass-half-full perspective on the 2022 election, provided the party also holds down its House losses and can save face by avoiding embarrassingly close races in blue states and districts, like for governor of New York or for the Senate from Washington.

The Democratic path to an acceptable night counts on voters who will back the candidate they know and like most, even if they don’t love the idea of having Democrats control the Senate.

Staving off embarrassment will also require Democrats to turn out in states far removed from the national spotlight — the states where the Senate isn’t at stake, where abortion is not on the ballot, and where no stop-thesteal candidate has a realistic chance of winning statewide.

It will take a long time before it becomes clear that Democrats are on track for a feels-like-a-win. There’s a distinct chance that none of the key Senate races will be called on election night.

Democrats will start to feel optimistic on Tuesday night if they can stay close in states like Ohio, Wisconsin and North Carolina, and hold the key East Coast House races.

They might even get outright excited if Mark Kelly opens up a wide lead in Arizona’s increasingly Democratic early mail vote.

Republican landslide

If the polls underestimate the Republicans again, the result of this year’s midterms won’t just feel like a Republican landslide — it will be a Republican landslide.

A “red wave” election would not be a surprise; nor would it be hard to explain. President Biden’s approval ratings are stuck in the low 40s, a figure as low or lower than Donald J. Trump’s approval ratings in 2018, Bill Clinton’s in 1994 and Barack Obama’s in 2010.

In each case, the party out of power gained 40 or more House seats and won the House national popular vote by around seven percentage points or more.

With Republicans making steady gains in the polls, it does not take any great imagination to see them stretching out a more decisive lead.

It’s tempting to think a decisive Republican victory isn’tpossible in such a polarized country, especially because Democrats have won the national vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections.But just last November, Republicans won the Virginia governor’s race by two percentage points — exactly the kind of show that would be equivalent to a red wave nationwide.

A Democratic surprise

A surprising Democratic night — a hold in the House and the Senate — is unlikely. With polls trending toward Republicans, the outcome feels even harder to imagine than the word “unlikely” suggests. But it does remain within the realm of possibility: Democrats are still within striking distance of a good night.

Unlike in previous cycles, they remain competitive in enough races to win control of the House. And not only do Democrats remain competitive in the race for the Senate, but they also have upside potential for a good night: Upsets remain possible in states like Wisconsin, Ohio and North Carolina, even if Republicans are plainly favoured.

By any historical perspective, it would be hard to explain if the Democrats managed to hold both chambers of Congress.

No president with an approval rating under 50 per centhas seen his party gain House seats in a midterm election, dating to the dawn of modern polling.

But this is not exactly an ordinary moment in American history.

Partisan polarisation is extreme. Many Democratic voters perceive that democracy is under threat.

Others are furious about theSupreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

In another midterm election, these voters might have stayed home. This cycle, they may well vote.

New York Times News Service