EU officials are drafting the most contested measure yet to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, an embargo on Russian oil products. The bloc has long resisted a ban on Russian oil because of its enormous costs for Germany and its potential to disrupt politics around the region and increase energy prices.

But EU officials and diplomats say the union is now moving towards adopting a phased-in ban designed to give Germany and other countries time to arrange alternative suppliers. The union took a similar approach earlier this month when it banned Russian coal, providing for a four-month transition period.

The oil embargo would not be put up for negotiation among the EU member states until after the final round of the French elections, on April 24, to ensure that the impact on gas prices does not help the Right-wing populist candidate Marine Le Pen and hurt President Emmanuel Macron’s chances of re-election, officials said.

The timeline is as important as the details of the ban, and is indicative of the brinkmanship required to convince all 27 EU countries to agree to take the previously unthinkable step, as Russia prepares its renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine.

But officials and diplomats, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to discuss the matter with the news media, said there was a growing sense that the measure would be taken even in the absence of more revelations like the atrocities in Bucha, Ukraine.

“The Commission and EU members have smartly shied away from defining red lines that would trigger a sanctions response since Russia attacked Ukraine,” said Emre Peker, a director at the Eurasia Group consultancy.

“I expect the EU will shy away from defining triggers,” he added.

(New York Times News Service)