Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump are locked in a dead heat for the popular vote, 48 per cent to 48 per cent, the final national poll by The New York Times and Siena College has found, as Harris struggles for an edge over Trump with an electorate that seems impossibly and immovably divided.

The result, coming less than two weeks before Election Day, and as millions of Americans have already voted, is not encouraging for Harris. In recent elections, Democrats have had an edge in the popular vote even when they have lost the Electoral College and thus the White House. They have been looking to Harris to build a strong national lead as a sign that she would do well in such critical swing states as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Harris and Trump remain effectively tied even after three of the most tumultuous months in recent American political history. A high-profile debate, two attempts on Trump’s life, dozens of rallies across seven battlefield states and hundreds of millions spent on advertisements have seemingly done little to change the trajectory of the race.

Harris’s position, if anything, may have declined among likely voters since the last Times/Siena College poll, taken in early October. At the time, she had a slight lead over Trump, 49 per cent to 46 per cent. The change is within the margin of error, but The Times’s national polling average has registered a tightening in polls over the past few weeks as well, suggesting at the very least that this contest has drawn even closer.

While this latest Times/Siena College poll offers a glimpse into national sentiment, the presidential election will be decided in the seven battleground states where Harris and Trump have devoted the overwhelming amount of their time and resources. Most polls in those states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — suggest the contest is equally close.

There are glimmers of hope in this final national poll for both Trump and Harris. For Trump it is immigration: 15 per cent of respondents named immigration as their top issue, up from 12 per cent.

Trump has hammered Harris on the Biden administration’s record on the issue — he has pledged to undertake “the largest deportation in American history” — as a closing message in his campaign speeches and advertisements. Voters by an 11-point margin said they trusted Trump more than Harris to deal with immigration.

Voters continue to be pessimistic about the direction of the country, a measure that historically has been a danger sign for the party in power. Just 28 per cent of respondents said the country was heading in the right direction.

The percentage of Americans who said that Trump, who is 78, is too old to be President remained at 41 per cent, essentially unchanged from July even after a series of rambling campaign speeches and appearances led to a swell of questions, including direct criticism from Harris, about the former President’s mental acuity and fitness.

The poll included some encouraging signs for Harris as well. She has narrowed the gap with Trump on the economy, which remains the top issue for voters. Trump had a 13-point edge over Harris on which candidate could better manage the economy in the poll last month. That has shrunk to 6 percentage points.

Harris also has a 16-point lead over Trump on which candidate would do a better job in protecting abortion access, a central theme of her campaign, as she seeks to build up support among female voters.

Harris still has room to grow. About 15 per cent of voters described themselves as not fully decided, and Harris is leading with that group, 42 per cent to 32 per cent. Two weeks ago, Trump had a minute edge with undecided or persuadable voters, 36 per cent to 35 per cent.

New York Times News Service