A diplomatic war of nerves is being played out in the Indian Ocean between India and China with tiny Sri Lanka caught in the middle.

China’s missile tracking ship the Yuan Wang-5 was scheduled to dock in Sri Hambantota Port on Thursday morning but didn’t do so after the Sri Lankan government, under pressure from India, withdrew permission to dock.

But the Yuan Wang-5 doesn’t seem to be heading home just yet. It’s in a holding pattern about 600 nautical miles (1,111km) from the Sri Lankan coast and appears to be waiting for China to put sufficient pressure on Sri Lanka which would enable it to dock at Hambantota.

There are indications of an intense diplomatic war underway as the Yuan Wang-5 stays in position not far from Sri Lanka. Earlier this year, Sri Lanka had requested India to supply it two Dornier-228s which are primarily used by the Indian Navy for maritime surveillance and disaster relief. A recent announcement said that one plane is likely to be handed over to the Sri Lankan armed forces this month. The Dornier-228 is well-suited for Sri Lankan needs.

China in arm-twisting mode

Meanwhile, China has moved into arm-twisting mode and has indicated that it may attempt to block the IMF rescue package that is desperately needed to rescue Sri Lanka from its current dire economic straits.

The reasons for the Yuan Wang-5’s presence in the Indian Ocean are not clear. The Yuan Wang class of ships are what are called missile tracking ships. In technical jargon, they are known as missile range instrumentation ships and they are used to track missiles and satellites as they launch and follow them in space. India is said to be worried that the ship may be used to monitor Indian missile launching sites like Sriharikota.

Also, the Yuan Wang-5 was planning to stay for over a week at Hambantota which is longer than is needed to replenish supplies before continuing its voyage.

Grabbing an opportunity

One suspicion is that the Chinese are just determined to establish the principle that their naval ships have the right to dock at Hambantota and India should not object to their presence there. And they are grabbing the opportunity created by Sri Lanka’s political and economic turmoil to choosing to assert this right at a time when the country has many other greater worries.

India has always been worried that the Chinese want to use Hambantota for its naval ships which are entering the Indian Ocean and also the Arabian Sea with increased frequency. It had created a row when two Chinese naval submarines docked at Hambantota back in 2014.

Since 2017 the port has been run by the Chinese company, China Merchants Ports, which has taken a 99-year lease on it. The port was handed over to the Chinese company after Sri Lanka found itself unable to meet the heavy repayments needed for the port. The Sri Lankans hope to turn the port which is on the island’s southern tip, into a key destination for ships crossing from the Malacca Straits to the Suez Canal. However, in the early years, it failed to attract many ships resulting in it making heavy losses.

India urges restraint

India today issued an anodyne statement about the Taiwan Straits crisis. Asked by a Xinhua journalist about India’s position, the External Affair Ministry spokesperson said: “We urge the exercise of restraint, avoidance of unilateral actions to change the status quo, de-escalation of tensions and efforts to maintain peace and stability in the region."

The spokesperson added neutrally: “India’s relevant policies are well-known and consistent. They do not require reiteration.”