Whatever happens on Tuesday, it’s fair to say this campaign has not gone as smoothly as Democrats expected.

In the wake of the midterms, Donald J. Trump appeared to be finished. He may still lose, of course, but he clearly wasn’t “disqualified” — as many expected — by the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack, several criminal indictments or an overturning of Roe vs Wade by his Supreme Court appointees. If voters disqualified any candidate in 2024, it was the sitting President, not the felon who attempted to overturn the last election.

How is Trump still so competitive? The simplest answer is that the national political environment just isn’t as conducive to a Democratic victory as many might imagine.

Democrats clearly face headwinds in this election. In the last New York Times/Siena College poll, only 40 per cent of voters approved of President Joe Biden’s performance, and only 28 per cent said the country was heading in the right direction. No party has retained control ofthe White House when so many Americans were dissatisfied with the country or the President.

The polls suggest the challenge for Democrats runs even deeper. For the first time in decades, Republicans have pulled even or ahead in nationwide party identification. Polls also find Republicans with an edge on most key issues — with democracy and abortion standing as significant exceptions.

The Democrats’ challenge appears to be part of a broader trend of political struggles for ruling parties across the developed world. Voters appear eager for change when they get the chance. The ruling parties in Britain, Germany, Italy, Australia and most recently Japan all faced electoral setbacks or lost power. Trump himself lost four years ago. France and Canada might well join the list.

The specifics vary from country to country and party to party, but much of the story is the same: the pandemic and upheaval that followed.

In the US, post-pandemic disillusionment and frustration took a toll on Democrats. The party championed a tough response to the virus, including mask and vaccine mandates, school closures and lockdowns. It had backed the Black Lives Matter movement, argued for a more liberal border policy, sought to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and spent trillions on stimulus. As the pandemic ended, all of this quickly became a liability.

Unlike other governing parties, Democrats have the Trump card to play. Along with abortion, it could be enough to allow Democrats to prevail. That’s exactly what happened in the 2022 midterm elections. But even if Kamala Harris emerges as the winner, it will not necessarily be a victory for progressives.

More than at any time over the last 16 years, Democrats are playing defence on the issues. They’ve moved to the right on immigration, energy and crime. They de-emphasised the traditional liberal push to expand the society safety net, which was eclipsed by the urgency to reduce prices.

Whatever the outcome, a long period of liberal ascendancy in American politics might be waning.

End of an era?

Since 2008, Democrats and liberalism have been dominant in American politics.

Democrats won the popular vote in four straight presidential elections. When they held full control of government, they enacted the Affordable Care Act, Dodd-Frank and the CHIPS Act; they saved the auto industry and spent billions on renewable energy, infrastructure and more.

Liberalism has been ascendant in the culture as well. The period was marked by a series of popular movements on the activist Left, from the Obama ’08 campaign to Occupy Wall Street, Black Lives Matter, #MeToo, the Bernie Sanders campaign and calls for a Green New Deal and Medicare for all.

The election of Trump didn’t stop this outpouring of liberal energy. Instead, it accelerated it. His election alarmed and outraged millions, who saw him as racist, sexist and a threat to democracy. The murder of George Floyd and the pandemic only added to the outrage, leading to a vigilant and righteous new Left that preached antiracism and coronavirus restrictions. It culminated in a wave of protests and so-called “woke” progressive activism on race and gender.

Over just the last few years, all of this liberal energy suddenly seemed to vanish. The backlash against pandemic restrictions and the woke Left gradually went mainstream, and even divided liberal institutions. Trust in the media, “experts” and scientists plunged. Younger Americans took to social media — perhaps with the help of algorithmic changes — to vent their frustrations with an ageing President, high prices, lost opportunity and anger at a system that wasn’t working for them.

At the same time, the events that followed the pandemic took a serious toll on the case for liberalism, whatever the precise merits of the arguments. Inflation and high interest rates could be blamed on high government spending stimulating excessive demand. High gas prices could be blamed on suspending drilling permits and the termination of the Keystone pipeline project. A surge of migrants could be blamed on the administration’s looser border policy, which became politically untenable; homelessness, crime and disorder made the case for “law and order”.

On issue after issue, Democrats have responded by moving to the Right. Most obviously, Harris had to back away from positions she took when the progressive cultural ascendancy was near its peak in 2019 — a ban on fracking, Medicare for all and so on. But the Democratic shift isn’t simply about backing away from positions taken during a Democratic primary. Across the board, Democrats have de-emphasised policies they preached with confidence to a general electorate only a few years ago.

If there’s any poll question that captures the swing towards a more conservative environment, it’s the question of which party (or candidate) would do the best on the issue that’s most important to your vote. All cycle, polls have shown Republicans and Trump with an advantage on this measure. Indeed, the polls show Trump and Republicans with an advantage on most issues.

Democrats might keep their winning streak going on Tuesday, but when historians look back they might conclude that the liberal ascendancy had already come to an end.

New York Times News Service