As global leaders continue to clash over the quality and quantity of financial support for developing nations, a solution and consensus remain elusive at COP29.

Experts warn that the summit may extend beyond its scheduled conclusion unless the draft text on a “new, collective, quantifiable goal (NCQG)”, released on Friday afternoon, gets broader approval from the conflicting nations.

The draft, for the first time, sees developed nations putting a figure to climate finance and it is nowhere close to the demands of the developing nations — both in terms of quantity and quality. Thus, a quick consensus seems to be difficult.

The draft, while referring to only one-fourth of the amount quoted by the developing nations and mentioned by several United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) finance documents, provided a lot of emphasis on fund sources other than public finance and grants as demanded by the developing nations.

The draft “calls on all actors to work together to enable the scaling up of financing to the developing countries parties for climate action from all public and private sources to at least $1.3 trillion per year by 2035”, a developing country perspective.

It also mentioned about “$250 billion per year by 2035 for developing country parties for climate action”, a figure put forward by the developed countries. Clearly in the next few hours, even a day, there will be a tug-of-war within two sets of figures to reach a consensus value.

It also says that the funds will be generated “from a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources”, and also focuses on the support from multilateral development banks for funding. More importantly, the draft “invites developing country parties to make additional contributions, including through south–south cooperation,” asking emerging economies such as China, India or Brazil in the global south also to provide support to smaller vulnerable nations in the region.

India on Thursday late evening, criticised the developed country block for shifting responsibility and focus.

Delivering India’s statement during plenary, India’s environment secretary Leena Nandan said: “We feel disappointed by the fact that we continue to shift focus. We keep talking about mitigation ambitions — what is to be done, without talking about how it is to be done — in other words, the enablement of mitigation ambitions. This COP started with a focus on enablement through NCQG, but as we move towards the end, we see a shifting of the focus to mitigation.”

India firmly asserted that any attempts to deflect the focus again from finance to repeated emphasis on mitigation cannot be accepted.

“The attempt by some parties to further talk about mitigation is primarily a shift in focus from their responsibilities of providing finance,” reads the statement that called for a “balance in the climate discourse.”

On NCQG, India pointed out the importance of grant-based concessional climate finance as “the most critical enabler” to formulate and implement the new NDCs (nationally determined commitments).

“The goal for mobilisation needs to be $1.3 trillion, with $600 billion of this coming through grants and grants-equivalent resources. Expansion of the contributor base, reflection of conditional elements such as macroeconomic and fiscal measures, suggestion for carbon pricing, focus on private sector actors for scaling up resource flows as investments — is contrary to the mandate for the goal,” stated India.

“It is a disgrace that despite full awareness of the devastating climate crises afflicting developing nations and the staggering costs of climate action — amounting to trillions — developed nations have only proposed a meagre $250 billion per year.

“To add insult to injury, this paltry sum includes loans and lacks the crucial commitment to grant-based finance, which is essential for developing nations to address climate impacts and transition away from fossil fuels,” it said.

Shailendra Yashwant, a senior adviser at Climate Action Network South Asia, said: “The NCQG number of $250 billion in the latest ministerial text is an insult to the people of the global south salvaging their belongings and trying to rebuild their lives from floods, heatwaves, cyclones, landslides or forest fires and other climate change induced disasters.”

The expert said that “this is unacceptable and will not only fail to deliver climate ambition but also completely undermine the principles of the Paris Agreement.”

Climate experts observe a long haul seems to be on the cards on NCQG numbers.