The exact reasons for the failed assassination of former US President Donald Trump
by the 20-year-old White male and registered Republican, Thomas Matthew Crooks, may never be known because the assassin was killed almost immediately.

However, the attempted assassination falls within a broader pattern.

Acts of political violence by domestic American groups and individuals spurred on by domestic causes — as opposed to those conducted by foreign terror groups and their domestic sympathisers — have been increasing in the United States since 2016. The perpetrators of violence target members of the opposing party as well as co-partisans.

Collective violence had reached an apex with the failed January 6, 2020, putsch by Trump supporters in the wake of his electoral defeat in November 2019.

This author explained how the causes of the putsch included problems extending from electoral institutions and political incitement to weak and complicit law-enforcement organisations.

However, individual acts of violence carried out by “lone wolves” cannot be fully explained by institutional and group-level factors.

High political polarisation that leads to fissures within and between the Democratic and Republican parties and perceived threats to White demographic dominance have
led to popular grievances and elite cueing, that is, support for violence against opponents from political leaders.

Unfortunately, Trump and his supporters have frequently indulged in this implicitly and explicitly. However, grievances and political elite encouragement are necessary
but insufficient for actual political violence. Not every angry man is a would-be assassin.

There are other social factors, one related and the other unrelated to partisan politics, which ease the transition from motive to action.

First, the vast quantities of available small arms in the United States, which facilitate potential assassins, is a problem. One created by the partisan overlap of the issue with
the GOP itself against most forms of gun control, including restrictions on the open carrying of weapons in public.

Second, mental illness has also spiked because of the effects of Covid-19 in the United States. Anxiety, depression and hopelessness have increased.

The effects of violent content on the Internet — be it via videos or interactions between like-minded individuals on social media — are also allegedly behind the spike.

In conclusion, political violence by groups and individuals may persist until the November 2024 elections. The assassination attempt will be used by the Trump campaign to elicit sympathy votes.

On the one hand, the identity of the assassin would make a straightforward partisan narrative less believable. On the other hand, the Trump campaign in 2016 relied on conspiracy theory proponents like the Q-Anon movement to justify convoluted narratives. The trade-off in the second strategy is that it would reinforce the loyalty of Trump’s base while further alienating moderate Republicans.

There could also be assassination attempts on Biden by activists. It is important to remember that Sen. Robert F. Kennedy was killed by pro-Palestine activist Sirhan Sirhan in 1969.

Thus, it behoves senior leaders of both parties to unequivocally decry political violence and ostracise members who support such violence against co-partisans and opponents.

Dr Vasabjit Banerjee is an assistant professor in the department of political science at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, where he teaches comparative politics and international relations.