The Origins

Ground Zero

By end-December 2019, there is a cluster of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan city of China’s Hubei province. Wuhan doctor Ai Fen posts an image of a diagnostic report of a patient; it shows a pneumonia infection caused by a Sars-like coronavirus. Ophthalmologist and Ai’s colleague Li Wenliang raises alarm. In the first week of January, a laboratory in Shanghai detects a coronavirus similar to Sars and by the third week, human to human spread is announced. Around this time, Wuhan is quarantined.

Patient Zero

Possibly dates back to November 17, 2019; a 55-year-old from China’s Hubei province.

A lab-leak?

For the longest time, the popular theory of the origin of the coronavirus was pinned onto Shi Zhengli, who heads a group that studies bat coronaviruses at China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology. The other theory was that the virus jump from bat to humans happened at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market. Shi denied the rumours and eventually it was established that up to 45 per cent of the first confirmed patients did not have anything to do with the market. In April, General Mark Milley of the Pentagon told media that the “weight of evidence” pointed towards “natural” origins of the outbreak.

Milestones

November 17 – First recorded infection in China

January 11 – First known death in China

January 12 – China shares genetic sequence of virus

January 13 – First recorded case outside China reported from Thailand

January 20-21 – Confirmed cases reported from South Korea and the United States

January 30 – The World Health Organization (WHO) declares a global emergency

February 2 – First death outside China, in the Philippines

February 11 – The ailment caused by coronavirus gets an official name — Covid-19

THE ERUPTION

Tracking Spread

Confirmed cases on February 17 (three months after Patient Zero)

Top of the list

China – 72,434

Diamond Princess* – 454

Singapore – 77

Japan – 67

Thailand – 35

South Korea – 30

*Cruise ship docked in Japan

THE CLOSURE

More than 100 countries responded by pulling down shutters, going into full or part lockdown by the end of March 2020. It was as if the world had come to a halt. Reopening was slow, and cautious, and never quite complete, never to pre-Covid conditions. Currently, with Europe experiencing a second wave of Covid-19, many countries are going under lockdown again.

THE PROLIFERATION

Confirmed cases on May 17

Top of the list

US – 14,91,829

Russia – 2,81,752

UK – 2,43,723

Brazil – 2,41,080

Spain – 2,30,698

Italy – 2,25,435

Confirmed cases on August 17

Top of the list

US – 54,24,000

Brazil – 33,59,570

India – 26,47,663

Russia – 9,25,558

South Africa – 5,89,886

Peru – 5,35,946

Confirmed cases on November 17, 2020

Top of the list

US – 1,13,71,585

India – 88,74,290

Brazil – 59,11,758

France – 19,91,233

Russia – 19,54,912

Spain – 15,10,023

Deaths to date

Worldwide – 15,06,250

US – 2,76,316

Brazil – 1,75,270

India – 1,39,188

Mexico – 1,08,173

UK – 60,210

Italy – 58,038

THE IMPACT

The costs went beyond just human health and well-being. Economies around the globe were slammed. The second quarter (April-June) of 2020 saw a loss of 400 million full-time jobs, according to the International Labour Organization. “We anticipate the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression,” Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said.

Losers

⦿ Travel, tourism and hospitality

⦿ Traditional retail

⦿ Oil and gas

⦿ Investment banking

⦿ Professional sports

⦿ Cinemas

Gainers

⦿ E-commerce

⦿ Pharma

⦿ Logistics

⦿ Video-conferencing platforms

⦿ OTTs

⦿ Gaming

In India

⦿ Job losses — 21 million salaried, formal economy jobs — More than 4 million below age of 30

⦿ Nearly 10 million have withdrawn money from EPFO

⦿ Finding themselves out of any Covid-19 emergency plan, more than one crore migrants undertook gruelling journeys home at the height of summer. Tens of thousands suffered scars, many died en route.

THE PERFORMERS

Nailed It

New Zealand

Confirmed cases: 2,069

Deaths: 25

Taiwan

Confirmed cases: 686

Deaths: 7

Germany

Confirmed cases: 11,41,544

Deaths: 18,097

Be it New Zealand or Taiwan or even Germany till September end, wherever the pandemic was arrested, the formula seems to have been the same — political leadership working in close consultation with scientists and experts; clear and incessant communication between state and people about coronavirus protocol and the need to adhere to it. New Zealand’s director-general of health Ashley Bloomfield appears alongside Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern at daily press conferences. Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel relies on Christian Drosten, head of virology at a hospital in Berlin. President of Taiwan Tsar Ing-wen, herself an epidemiologist, enforced lockdown and travel restrictions even before Wuhan did.

Failed It

All happy nations are alike, Covid-19-unhappy nations also resemble each other.

In the US, in 2018, Donald Trump disbanded the White House team in charge of pandemic response, he also trimmed funding to agencies such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. After the pandemic broke out, he refused to take it seriously, more than once ridiculing openly Anthony Fauci, the US’s top infectious diseases expert; he made fun of masks, and defied advisories to the peril of fellow Americans. Testing failure, politics over policy and delayed responses and travel bans made for 2,76,316 deaths and counting. Trump even said, “If I listened totally to the scientists, we would right now have a country that would be in a massive depression.” He himself tested positive.

It’s going to disappear. One day, it’s like a miracle, it will disappear

Trump, President of the US, in February | Got It

I can tell you I am shaking hands continuously

Boris Johnson, British Prime Minister, in March | Got covid

Brazilians need to be studied. They don’t catch anything. You see the guy jumping in the sewer, diving in. And nothing happens to him

Jair Bolsonaro, President of Brazil, in March | Got covid

In Brazil, President Jair Bolsonaro too remained in denial about the virus. The two health ministers, both medical doctors by training, were replaced by military man Eduardo Pazuello, who reportedly advocated expanded access to chloroquine and allowed it to be prescribed to anyone who tests positive for the coronavirus. Both Bolsonaro and Pazuello tested positive at different points.

In India, the Narendra Modi government did not make light of the pandemic, but it dragged its feet on the issue. The first case was confirmed on January 30 in Thrissur, Kerala. The Trump extravaganza was unfurled in February; multiple thousands came to a “Kem Chho Trump” rally in Ahmedabad, which soon became a Covid hotspot. Parliament continued to be in session till March 23. By then there were 400-plus cases and nine recorded deaths. The country went into lockdown on March 25, hours after the announcement by the PM. The Centre invested too much in bombast and bravado and far less in testing, planning and communicating.

THE CURE

Candidate Vaccines

All over the world there are 150-plus coronavirus vaccines being developed. And though there is a race of sorts among them, it is useful to know that it typically takes, at least, a decade of research before a vaccine can enter the market. During this time, a vaccine goes through three stages of clinical trial before being pushed ahead for approval. The fastest vaccine to be developed ever was the mumps vaccine — four years — and the Ebola vaccine was five years in the making. The front runners Covid-19 vaccine candidates are Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, and then there is the AstraZeneca vaccine of Oxford (Pune’s Serum Institute is a collaborator-producer) and Russia’s Sputnik V.

Who gets it first?

Slots have already been carved up between the US, UK, EU, Japan, Canada and Switzerland. And WHO is working with the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations or Cepi and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, for a more even distribution. And how much they will cost to the final recipient will depend on individual countries and governments. Norway has said it will provide its people the vaccine free of charge. So did the BJP, as a poll promise for the people of Bihar. The first certified vaccines are to roll out in the US and the UK this coming week.

VIRUS VOCAB

Words that have passed into our daily usage: Corona. Mask. Face shield. Sanitiser. Positive. Negative. Asymptomatic. Comorbidity. Endemic. Viral load. Herd immunity. Pandemic. Social distancing. Isolation. Quarantine. PPE. Ventilator. Oximeter. Vaccine.