The upcoming bypoll to the Dhupguri Assembly segment in Jalpaiguri district is being billed as a litmus test for the Trinamul Congress and the BJP in north Bengal ahead of the Lok Saba elections.

The bypoll result will show if Trinamul’s efforts for clawback in the region are paying dividends or if the BJP has managed to retain its base in the region.

The Dhupguri Assembly seat, reserved for Scheduled Castes, fell vacant on July 25 with the demise of incumbent BJP MLA Bishnupada Roy. The bypoll will be held on September 5.

Dhupguri represents north Bengal in the sense that it has a diverse population, tea estates, forests and agricultural land.

“The constituency has around 60 per cent Rajbanshi population. Adivasis and Gorkhas also live in over 15 tea gardens in the constituency. Altogether, these communities constitute 75 to 80 per cent of voters,” said a political veteran of Dhupguri town.

The constituency has around 2.68 lakh voters.

Trinamul had bagged the seat in 2011 and 2016. However, in 2021, Roy of the BJP defeated the Trinamul nominee by a margin of 4,355 votes.

Soumen Nag, a political researcher based in Siliguri, said the bypoll was crucial for both Trinamul and the BJP.

He pointed out that Trinamul had performed well in Dhupguri block in the recent rural polls like most other parts of the state. “However, one cannot draw definite conclusions from the rural poll results as voting didn’t take place in municipal areas.... Besides, several questions were raised about the manner in whichthe panchayat polls were held. But when it comes to the Assembly bypoll, it is, by all means, a more authentic test for any political party,” said Nag.

After the BJP bagged 30 of 54 seats in north Bengal in the 2021 Assembly elections, Mamata Banerjee’s party has put in several efforts to win back the support of different communities, including Rajbanshis and the tea population that comprises Adivasis and Gorkhas.

Only one Assembly bypoll was held in north Bengal since the 2021 elections. Cooch Behar BJP MP Nisith Pramanik, who had won the Dinhata seat, resigned as the MLA. Udayan Guha of Trinamul won the Dinhata byelection.

The result of Dhupguri, Trinamul leaders feel, will show whether their efforts to claw back in north Bengal have succeeded and if the party won back the support of Adivasis, Gorkhas and Rajbanshis. The support of these communities determines the results of at least four of eight Lok Sabha seats in north Bengal that Trinamul had lost in 2019.

“Our principal rival is the BJP and we are confident of winning the Dhupguri seat. The win will prove that tea garden residents and Rajbanshis have supported us. In the course of our campaign, we will also underscore the non-performance of BJP’s legislators who have won from this region,” said Mahua Gope, the Jalpaiguri district Trinamul president.

Nirmal Chandra Roy is the Trinamul candidate for the bypoll.

What worries the saffron camp most is its organisational weakness. In north Bengal, especially in tribal belts, one of the reasons for the BJP’s performance in the 2019 and 2021 polls was the consistent activities of the RSS in Adivasi-dominated areas.

“But as compared to Trinamul, the BJP’s organisational strength is weak in most areas of Dhupguri,” said an observer.

That is why, it seems, the party has played a nationalist card by fielding Tapashi Roy, the wife of Jagannath Roy, a CRPF personnel who had died in a terrorist attack in Kashmir two years ago.

“That the party is trying to stoke people’s sentiments is evident from the posts made by some of its leaders on social media. They are seeking support for the candidate while underscoring her husband’s death,” the observer added.

Bapi Goswami, the district BJP chief of Jalpaiguri, is confident of retaining the seat.

“People will not vote for Trinamul that has indulged in corruption. Also, there is disgruntlement among voters as the party manipulated the panchayat elections. These two factors will help us secure votes. We will surely retain the seat,” said Goswami.

Star campaigner

Rajbanshi leader Ananta Maharaj is among 40 star campaigners, whose names were announced by the BJP on Thursday for the Dhupguri byelection.

Nagendra Ray, popularly known as Ananta Maharaj, was recently elected to the Rajya Sabha from Bengal on a BJP ticket. The self-styled leader of the Rajbanshis has sway over the community which is dominant in Dhupguri.

But a section of BJP leaders said there should be caution that Ananta Maharaj didn’t speak on a Kamtapuri state. That would alienate the voters in south Bengal,” a BJP leader said.

State BJP president Sukanta Majumdar, the leader of the Opposition, Suvendu Adhikari, MP Dilip Ghosh, and national executive member and actor Mithun Chakraborty are among the party’s 40 star campaigners.