Three years after its historic victory halting the BJP's advance in Bengal, the Trinamul Congress (TMC), plagued by corruption allegations and internal power struggle and having withdrawn from the INDIA bloc in the state, is now engaged in a solitary battle to counter the saffron party’s momentum and uphold party unity.
With the BJP setting its sights on winning over 35 out of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal, the TMC faces the daunting task of regaining the seats it lost to the BJP in 2019.
This strategic objective involves not only reducing the saffron camp's tally but also maximising the TMC's parliamentary representation. By doing so, the party aims to bolster its negotiating power in potential opposition alliance governments and strengthen its ability to counter the BJP's potential third consecutive term in power, according to TMC sources.
The elections hold significant stakes for TMC leader Mamata Banerjee. A defeat could lead to a wave of defections from her party to the saffron camp, reminiscent of the post-2019 scenario, according to political analysts.
This could pose a threat to the existence of her party, which has been in power since 2011 and is perceived by some as lacking a clear ideology.
On the other hand, a victory would elevate her to the ranks of leaders who have successfully thwarted Narendra Modi-led BJP twice in their respective territories, solidifying her position as a prominent opposition figure on the national stage.
In 2019, the TMC won 22 seats, whereas the BJP bagged 18 seats in the state.
"For us, the challenge is two-fold. First with Modi conducting four rallies in the last few days, he has brought BJP's challenge to our doorstep, which we have to halt. Second, after walking out of INDIA alliance in the state, we have to prove that TMC on its own can resist the BJP's march," TMC MP and leader Sougata Roy told PTI.
Sudip Bandopadhyay, TMC's Lok Sabha party leader, echoed similar sentiments, highlighting that the biggest challenge is defeating the BJP in Bengal, especially considering the tacit understanding among the opposition Left, Congress, and the BJP.
"TMC is the only party which is fighting in Bengal against the BJP and its anti-people policies. It is TMC which has both organisational power and leadership charisma to defeat the BJP in Bengal. We have done it in 2021 assembly polls and we will repeat that feat," he said.
TMC has decided to go solo in the LS polls in Bengal while being a partner of opposition bloc INDIA on the national stage.
Several TMC leaders, who spoke to PTI, emphasised that alongside external challenges, it is the internal strife that has kept the political landscape tumultuous within the party.
"Although the candidate list is out, the undercurrent between a section of veterans and the party's next generation is palpable. Putting up a united fight is indeed a challenge for us," he said.
Dissension has emerged in various regions since the announcement of LS candidates, with ticket aspirants expressing dissatisfaction over the party nominations.
Emerging from the Congress in 1998, the TMC initially faced defeat in 2001 and 2006 before claiming power in 2011, overthrowing the Left Front regime amid widespread public discontent against the communists.
Banerjee consolidated her control in Bengal in 2016 with a resounding victory, winning 211 seats against communists.
However, the 2019 LS polls saw a shift as the BJP, leveraging its pro-NRC and CAA stance, secured 18 seats in Bengal, four less than TMC.
In 2021, the TMC secured its third consecutive victory, winning 213 seats, by emphasising 'Bengali Pride' and countering BJP's identity politics with a narrative of sub-nationalism.
Despite the BJP's increasing influence in the state, TMC's voter percentage has risen in successive elections.
In 2019, despite securing fewer Lok Sabha seats, 22 compared to 34 seats in 2014, the TMC's voter percentage increased from 39.8% to 43.3%. Similarly, in the 2011 and 2016 assembly polls, its voter percentage rose from 38.93% to 44.91%. It reached its peak in the 2021 state elections, where it garnered 48.02% of the votes.
In last year's panchayat polls, the TMC achieved a clean sweep, securing victory in all the zilla parishads, despite allegations of violence and malpractices.
Political analysts observe that while data suggests TMC's strong position, there is a concern on the ground due to corruption allegations and the imprisonment of many of its election managers and key leaders, indicating a visible disconnect among the people.
"Although it is Mamata Banerjee who matters in our party, with leaders like Anubrata Mondal, Jyotipriyo Mullick and Partha Chatterjee behind the bars, there is concern about management of elections as they were key election managers," a senior TMC leader said.
He said although a parallel leadership has come up in every area, "It is to test whether they can deliver in big events like LS polls." Political observers feel that keeping the party intact in the Lok Sabha polls and stopping the repeat of the 2019 scenario is the biggest challenge.
"The TMC faces challenges both internally and externally. Internally, there is a power struggle between old and new party members, while externally, corruption allegations have tarnished its image. Overcoming these challenges, maintaining unity, winning a maximum number of seats, and preventing BJP from crossing the 20-seat mark are among the biggest challenges," political analyst Biswanath Chakraborty said.
He said if the party fails to win more seats than BJP, then "It will trigger a fresh spate of defections from the party putting its government in Bengal at stake." Echoing similar sentiments, political analyst Maidul Islam said TMC's biggest challenge would be to halt BJP's juggernaut single-handedly.
"If they fail to do so, it will have repercussions both within the TMC and will also prove that the party is unable to challenge Narendra Modi-led BJP single-handedly in the elections," he said.
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