A record 57.1 gigatonnes of greenhouse gases were emitted globally last year, a 1.3 per cent increase from 2022, a United Nations report has said ahead of a world climate conference.

A senior UN official compared the situation to moving into “intensive care”. A gigatonne is equal to 1 billion tonnes, which is roughly twice the mass of all of the people on the planet.

“Global greenhouse gas emissions set a new record of 57.1 GtCO2e in 2023 (and) the increase in total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 1.3 per cent from 2022 levels is above the average rate in the decade preceding the Covid-19,” the report, released in Nairobi on Thursday, says.

Since carbon dioxide is the dominant greenhouse gas, contributing the most to global warming and related climate impacts, all such gases are measured in terms of carbon dioxide equivalent.

“Continuation of current policies will lead to a catastrophic temperature rise of up to 3.1°C if current commitments for 2030 are not… met; (and) even if they are met, temperature rise would only be limited to 2.6-2.8°C,” the report warns.

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap report series, now in its 15th year, provides a yearly review of the gap between where global emissions are headed, the various countries’ current commitments, and where they ought to be to limit warming to 1.5°C.

The report says only five countries — India, China, Mexico, Turkey and Zambia — are on course to meet their respective NDC (Nationally Determined Contributions) targets on emission cuts.

Released just around a fortnight before COP29 (the next UN Climate Change Conference) gets under way in Baku, Azerbaijan, the report has placed under the scanner global action on curtailing greenhouse gases, particularly by the developed countries.

Earlier scientific reports, including those from the UN, said that by 2030, global emissions should be reduced by 43 per cent of the 2019 levels to contain temperature rise to within 1.5°C above the pre-industrial period. This cut-off has been a benchmark considered critical for the survival of the planet as we know it.

“Climate crunch time is here. We need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before — starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges — or the 1.5°C goal will soon be dead and (even a goal of) well below 2°C will take its place in the intensive care unit,” said Inger Andersen, UNEP executive director, while releasing the report.

“I urge every nation: no more hot air, please. Use the upcoming COP29 talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, to increase action now.”

The report says: “GHG emissions across the G20 members also increased in 2023 and accounted for 77 per cent of global emissions…. The six largest GHG emitters accounted for 63 per cent of global GHG emissions. (In) contrast, (the) least developed countries accounted for only 3 per cent.”

It warns that “collectively, the G20 members are… assessed to miss their NDC targets for 2030, with current policy projections exceeding NDC projections by 1 GtCO2e in 2030”.

NDCs are commitments by countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and are key outputs of the Paris Agreement (2016), which aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C. Countries submit new NDCs every five years, and each new set reflects their highest possible ambition.

Harjeet Singh, climate activist and global engagement director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative, said the findings were “alarming yet again, while political inaction threatens to lock in irreversible damage”.

“At COP29, leaders must act on their fair share of responsibility — especially wealthier nations who have fuelled this crisis for decades,” he said.

The report warns that under current policies, global emissions in 2030 are projected to be 53 to 59 gigatonnes — way off the target that scientific studies mandate.