As the thrid phase of polling was on in Bengal on Tuesday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave voice to a thought that has been shared privately by a large number of citizens, ordinary voters as well as those in the thick of politics: what will be the fate of the Trinamul Congress post the Assembly polls?

“The anger against Trinamul leaders among its own party workers is erupting daily. People have started discussing after the staggering defeat of May 2, the Trinamul party will disintegrate. T will go some way, M will go this way and C that way,” Modi said addressing an election meeting at Howrah’s Dumurjola.

Tuesday was also the day when the BJP was formed some 41 years ago, emerging out of the remnants of the Janata Party to spread the political and economic ideologies of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh.

“Situation is such that the polling agents are revolting and she realises this,” said Modi.

Since the 2019 Lok Sabha polls when Bengal first witnessed the rapid saffron surge, around 26 of Trinamul parliamentarians and legislators have joined the BJP. Ask any voter in Bengal, which party do they expect will face defection in case the BJP falls short of a simple majority. The answer they gave is Trinamul.

The biggest catch for the BJP in the run-up to the 2021 Assembly polls was Suvendu Adhikary, the former Trinamul leader from East Midnapore. As long as he was in the Trinamul, he was the only other leader aapart from Mamata Banerjee who had a strong support base. Since then three MPs – Dinesh Trivedi, Sisir Adhikary and Sunil Mondol—have joined the saffron outfit.

Several MLAs in the incumbent Assembly have also switched camps that has prompted the question whether the Trinamul would survive the BJP onslaught in the coming days.

Leaders like the octogenarian Singur MLA Rabindranath Bhattacharya, Sital Sardar, Dipak Haldar, Jatu Lahiri and Dipendu Biswas were denied tickets by their former party and are now contesting on the BJP symbol. Sarala Murmu from Malda, however, quit Trinamul and joined BJP even after being given a ticket.

The largescale defection from the Trinamul ranks has helped the BJP make up some of its shortcomings. Like its organisational weaknesses. While votes from a vast majority of former CPM supporters and a section of the disgruntled Trinamul supporters may have helped the party take giant electoral strides in the Lok Sabha polls, that is not enough for the BJP to form the first ever government in Bengal.

One reason for that is that there isn't much of a Left vote share remaining in the kitty for the BJP to make electoral gains from. Second, without a strong election machinery and organisation, establishing control over large swathes of territory in Bengal is nearly impossible. It was organisation that had helped the CPM government survive for 34 years. It has been the same with Mamata too.

The Trinamul chief herself is wary of the situation within her party. In her recent campaign meetings, Mamata has been talking about the remaining “gaddars” – a name that she has given to Trinamul turncoats. Mamata had formed the Trinamul Congress after breaking away from the Congress and weakening the grand old party organisationally in the state, something that she is now trying to accuse her former party colleagues of having done.

“Truth does not transform. It remains today what it was yesterday. Didi is threatening the people of Bengal. Didi says amraa dekhe nebo (We will see). We want an opportunity to serve the people of Bengal. Those who attend our rallies, she accuses them of accepting money. Isn’t she insulting you? Don’t you get angry with her? Punish her that she cannot make any such accusations against you,” Modi said.