The by-elections to six assembly constituencies in West Bengal on Wednesday are shaping up to be a test for the ruling TMC, amid a wave of widespread protests across the state surrounding the alleged rape and murder of a doctor at the RG Kar Medical College and Hospital.

The incident has sparked a months-long agitation by junior doctors demanding justice for their deceased colleague and systemic reforms, significantly impacting the political environment just days before the polls.

Both the ruling TMC and the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have fielded candidates for all six seats: Naihati, Haroa, Medinipur, Taldangra, Sitai (SC), and Madarihat (ST).

Notably, five of these constituencies are in the TMC strongholds of south Bengal, while Madarihat remains a BJP bastion in the northern part of the state.

Adding another layer of competition, the CPI (M)-led Left Front and the Congress are contesting separately for the first time since 2021, following a recent change in the Bengal Congress leadership.

This time, the Left Front has fielded candidates for five of the six seats, including one CPI(ML) nominee.

The Congress under new state party chief Suvankar Sarkar has fielded candidates in all six seats. Sarkar took over the reign from Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury last month.

While Chowdhury had previously backed aggressive opposition to the TMC, Sarkar’s position remains less defined, with analysts speculating that the new state Congress chief may opt for a softer stance on selective issues in alignment with broader political strategies.

These bypolls were necessitated following the resignations of MLAs who were elected to the Lok Sabha in the general elections this year.

The TMC had previously secured five of the six assembly constituencies in the 2021 elections, with the BJP holding onto Madarihat.

The bypolls will also serve as a litmus test for the TMC, which emerged victorious in the Lok Sabha elections just four months ago. The party had bagged 29 parliamentary seats, up from 22 in 2019, while the BJP’s tally was down from 18 to 12.

The upcoming contest, therefore, is expected to be a four-cornered battle involving the TMC, BJP, Left Front, and the Congress, with each party eager to capture voter sentiment.

TMC insiders say the leadership is eager to gauge the current level of support amidst growing unrest over the RG Kar incident, which has cast a shadow over Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s administration.

The death of the on-duty doctor at the state-run hospital in August and the allegations of an attempt to cover up the incident led to massive outrage across the state.

Junior medics organised a series of protest programmes that included cease-work, hunger strikes, conventions and rallies, while common people overwhelmingly hit the streets in support of them, seeking justice for the deceased doctor.

Political observers noted that the RG Kar incident has intensified anti-incumbency sentiment, especially in urban areas.

The TMC leadership, however, argued that the agitation was primarily confined to urban pockets and remains confident of retaining its strongholds.

“We are confident of winning all the six seats based on the developmental work done by the TMC government. The people of Bengal will continue to disregard the divisive politics of the BJP,” said a senior TMC leader.

BJP leaders are optimistic about the party's chances in these bypolls, especially after the RG Kar incident.

"We are confident of retaining Madarihat and winning the remaining five seats," BJP leader Rahul Sinha said.

He alleged that the RG Kar incident has exposed flaws in the state’s healthcare system, and the people of West Bengal are "fed up" with the TMC’s governance.

BJP sources claimed that the party plans to leverage public anger over the RG Kar tragedy to gain an edge in the bypolls.

In a show of strength, the Left Front entered the electoral race as a separate bloc after several elections in alliance with Congress since 2021.

Left leaders are considering the bypolls as an opportunity to test their appeal amidst public dissatisfaction with the TMC and the BJP.

The four-cornered contest, involving the TMC, BJP, Left Front, and Congress, is expected to be intense, with the opposition parties aiming to capitalise on the unrest linked to the RG Kar incident.

"The government has failed to address the core issues within the state’s healthcare system, and the RG Kar incident is a stark reminder of that," a CPI(M) leader said.

BJP leaders have echoed similar sentiments, predicting that the incident could serve as a tipping point in voter sentiment, particularly in the urban centres of Kolkata where the protests have been most intense.

The polls are seen as a crucial barometer for the TMC’s popularity and resilience amidst a rapidly evolving political landscape in West Bengal.

Having won nearly all assembly by-polls since 2021, except Sagardighi in February 2023, the TMC is hoping to maintain its momentum.

The June by-polls, where TMC secured victories in four assembly seats, including BJP strongholds in Matua-dominated regions, boosted the party’s morale.

However, the RG Kar case has given the opposition fresh ammunition to challenge the TMC’s dominance.

“The polls will test whether the TMC still commands the overwhelming support it enjoyed in the recent Lok Sabha elections. All eyes are on how the RG Kar issue will play into voters’ decisions on November 13,” political analyst Biswanath Chakraborty said.

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