The CVoter opinion poll for ABP Ananda for January 2021 has indicated that Mamata Banerjee will be able to retain power in Bengal, albeit with a reduced majority.

The BJP, despite considerable gains since 2016, will not be able get close to the majority mark of 148 in the 294-seat Assembly, shows the survey.

The poll conducted for four states and the Union Territory of Puducherry came out with several interesting takeaways for Trinamul and the BJP in Bengal, where the game-is-already-over-for-Mamata perception being peddled by the saffron ecosystem might not be true on the ground yet.

A key factor in the polls, according to the survey, might be the Left and the Congress contesting in an alliance this time, thereby largely raining on the BJP’s parade.

The Left and the Congress had contested separately in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and secured a marginally larger vote share. Their coming together could make a difference of 20-odd seats, which the alliance seems to be taking away from the BJP — thereby helping Mamata (see chart).

“We always knew this. This is far from over. As the game progresses, our position will only keep improving further. Don’t be surprised if, in the end, Trinamul sweeps with 200-plus seats,” said a senior Trinamul MP.

The MP refused to go on record on the matter till Mamata herself does -- asserting that more Left-Congress votes will swing in favour of his party, going forward.

“Even if this is the result, after the polls, there will be an avalanche of ghar wapsi (homecoming) of Trinamul defectors from the BJP, worsening their numbers further,” he added.

Another takeaway is the 7.7 per cent vote share secured by “Others” — which would include the likes of the Asaduddin Owaisi-Abbasuddin Siddiqui truck. The “others” might drag the BJP back by nearly 3 per cent of the votes (in comparison to 2019). In an election this close, and with Trinamul more or less holding on to the 43-odd per cent votes it secured in 2019, it is the BJP’s possible fall from 40.7 to 37.5 — from 121 to 102 seats, instead of a rise — that could be the clincher for Mamata.

“We simply don’t believe this at all. We are coming to power with 200-plus seats, and these predictions will be proved wrong, like in the case of Bihar last year,” said a BJP leader.

Some key takeaways from the other questions that were part of the opinion poll follow:

⦿ Asked who the Left-Congress alliance would benefit: 36.8 per cent of the respondents said Trinamul, 33.1 said the BJP, 13.2 said the alliance itself, and 17 responded with DN/CS (Don’t know/Can’t say)

⦿ Asked if they thought Suvendu Adhikari joining the BJP would deal a heavy blow to Trinamul: 45.9 per cent of the respondents said yes, 35.4 said no, 18.6 said DN/CS

⦿ Asked if the BJP would get extra mileage if Sourav Ganguly was its chief ministerial candidate: 48.1 per cent said yes, 33 said no, while 18.9 went with DN/CS

⦿ Asked if the BJP’s image would get tarnished for inclusion of the accused in the likes of the Saradha and Narada cases: 41.6 per cent said yes, 34.2 said no, 24.3 said DN/CS

⦿ Asked if the Mamata Banerjee’s government’s Duare Sarkar programme would benefit her party: 45.5 per cent said yes, 36.6 per cent said no, and 17.8 said DN/CS

⦿ Asked if Trinamul managed to blunt its own “outsider” weapon against the BJP by bringing poll consultant Prashant Kishor on board: 38.5 per cent said yes, 24.2 said no, 37.3 replied with DN/CS

⦿ Asked who between Amit Shah (200-plus seats for the BJP) and Kishor (less than 100 for the BJP) was more likely to be correct: 41.2 per cent went with Shah, 35.9 responded in favour of Kishor and 22.9 were unsure with DN/CS