All political forces in Bengal are keenly observing the six Assembly bypolls on Wednesday, results of which would be declared on November 23, to ascertain whether the recent political setbacks of the ruling Trinamul dispensation — RG Kar protests — have any major bearing in electoral terms.

Chief minister Mamata Banerjee has urged the electorate to ensure a 6-0 sweep for her party, and anything less than 5-1 (the BJP had won Madarihat in 2021) would be considered an upset by Trinamul.

In the July 10 bypolls to Bagda, Maniktala, Raiganj and Ranaghat Dakshin, Trinamul had won all four.

But a lot is believed to have taken place politically in Bengal since August 9, when the rape and murder at RG Kar came to light, followed by countless allegations against the ruling dispensation of cover-ups.

These elections would be conducted by the Election Commission of India, with full-fledged deployment of central forces.

Voting patterns in these bypolls, especially in the urban or semi-urban pockets, could be an important indicator in the wake of RG Kar.

The Telegraph takes a closer look at the six seats.

Constituency: Sitai (Cooch Behar)

Candidates: Sangita Roy, Trinamul; Dipak Kumar Roy, the BJP; Arun Kumar Barma, Forward Bloc; Harihar Roy Singha, the Congress

Who won in 2021: Trinamul, by 10,112 votes

Who led in 2024 LS polls: Trinamool, by 39,250 votes

Why the vacancy: Trinamul MLA Jagadish Chandra Barma Basunia resigned after he got elected as the Cooch Behar MP

Key issues: Development, erosion, and alleged highhandedness of the BSF

Edge: Trinamul, as the seat has around 35 per cent minority population. Also, the party is much ahead of the BJP in terms of campaign.

Constituency: Madarihat (Alipurduar)

Candidates: Jay Prakash Toppo, Trinamul; Rahul Lohar, the BJP; Padam Oraon, the RSP; Bikash Champramari; the Congress

Who won in 2021: BJP, by 29,685 votes

Who led in 2024 LS polls: BJP, by 11,063 votes

Why the vacancy: Manoj Tigga, the two-time BJP MLA of the seat, resigned after he got elected as the Alipurduar MP

Key issues: Closed tea estates, erosion, migration of youths due to lack of jobs, and the demand for a road overbridge at the railway level crossing in Birpara

Edge: Tough to say, Trinamul introduced social schemes, land rights, and a housing scheme for tea estates, but BJP has campaigned aggressively.

Constituency: Medinipur (West Midnapore)

Candidates: Sujoy Hazra, Trinamul; Subhajit Roy, the BJP; Mani Kuntal Khamrai, the CPM; Shyamal Kumar Ghosh, the Cong;

Who won in 2021: Trinamul, by 24,397 votes

Who led in 2024 LS polls: Trinamul, by 2,170 votes

Why the vacancy: MLA June Maliah became the Medinipur MP

Key issues: While Trinamul’s issue is development, the Opposition countered with corruption and recent reports of atrocities on women.

Edge: Trinamul. The constituency comprises Medinipur town, where the BJP has a strong organisation. However, since Dilip Ghosh’s shift to the Bardhaman-Durgapur Lok Sabha seat in the 2024 general election, the party has been rattled by its infighting.

Constituency: Taldangra (Bankura)

Candidates: Falguni Singhababu, Trinamool; Ananya Roy Chakraborty, the BJP; Debkanti Mahanti, the CPM; Tushar Kanti Sannigrahi, the Congress

Who won in 2021: Trinamul, by 12,377 votes

Who led in 2024 LS polls: Trinamul, by 8,483 votes

Why the vacancy: MLA Arup Chakraborty became the Bankura MP

Key issues: The support of voters of Odisha origin

Edge: Trinamul, as Taldangra is currently a stronghold, and the BJP could not make significant inroads this time.

Constituency: Naihati (North 24-Parganas)

Candidates: Santat De, Trinamool; Rupak Mitra, the BJP; Debajyoti Mazumdar, the CPI(ML); Paresh Nath Sarkar, the Congress

Who won in 2021: Trinamul, by 18,855 votes

Who led in 2024 LS polls: Trinamul, by 15,518 votes

Why the vacancy: MLA Partha Bhowmick became the Barrackpore MP

Key issues: Sick jute industry, poor law and order, impact of the RG Kar movement and alleged attack on protestors’ rally

Edge: Trinamul, for its organisational network.

Constituency: Haroa (North 24-Parganas)

Candidates: Rabiul Islam, Trinamul; Bimal Das, the BJP; Piyarul Islam, the ISF; Habib Reza Chowdhury, the Congress

Who won in 2021: Trinamul, by 80,978 votes

Who led in 2024 LS polls: Trinamool, by 1,11,121 votes

Why the vacancy: MLA Haji Sheikh Nurul Islam became the Basirhat MP. He died soon after.

Key issues: Lack of jobs, land-grab, illegal conversion of agri-land to bheris, grabbing of waqf properties, and poor law and order

Who has the advantage: Growing popularity of ISF among Muslim voters and support of the CPM that raised issues like grabbing of waqf properties.