Virologists had predicted an explosion in the number of Covid cases after the Pujas but as of now daily new cases, though on the rise till Monday, have not hit the roof. Experts, though optimistic, would however, rather wait to see the week through before patting people on the back for showing restraint during the festive days.

The growing reluctance among a section of people to go for tests despite showing Covid-19 symptoms is also taking away from the capacity of the numbers to reflect the true picture, warn doctors .

“Despite our best efforts, residents met at large gatherings during the Pujas. They went to restaurants, roamed about without masks. The virus has an incubation period and those affected should start feeling sick by November 6 or 7,” said Pranoy Roy, mayoral council member in charge of health, Bidhannagar Municipal Corporation. “We are afraid that figures for fresh cases might rise further this weekend.”

Even if those affected by the virus have got fever by now they are likely to have popped a few pills for three days before getting a Covid test done. The results too would take a day more to arrive.

The corporation area, pointed out public health specialist Anirban Dolui, was logging 120 to 130 new cases daily for about two weeks before the Pujas. “We need to be watchful for another three-four days for the incubation period of five to 14 days after exposure to be completely over. The Covid test results need to be monitored till the end of the week for the effect of the Pujas to be understood,” said Dolui, who is one of the three co-ordinators for the state government’s home isolation monitoring team.

Figures of new cases have been on the rise since the end of the Pujas. Dwadashi (October 28) saw a jump to 136 from 95 the day before. The highest spike with 142 new cases, was on November 2. For two days after that, the numbers have dipped — 102 and 114 — but experts are not sure if the downward trend will continue till the end of the week.

A senior civic health official preferred to be optimistic. He said he was keeping fingers crossed that the worst was over. “It is true that we need to keep an eye on the figures for another four-five days but trends so far suggest that the figure is unlikely to spiral like it had in Kerala after Onam.”

According to predictions of virologists on the post-Puja situation in Bengal, new daily infections would have been close to 200 by now. “But that has not happened,” he argued.

Abhik Ghosh, a CB Block-based ENT specialist who is the co-ordinator of Protect the Warriors, a forum of doctors formed to provide support against Covid-19, said though there was no explosion of new cases across Bengal after Durga puja, figures were showing an upward curve in some pockets of the city like Salt Lake. “The picture will be clear at the end of the week. Even then, it is unlikely that the 4,000 new infection figure will double or treble. Still, we need to be careful with Kali puja and Diwali coming up. That will lead to another round of shopping and social mixing.”

Six teams of four doctors each from Protect the Warriors had inspected 100 Durga pujas across the city and provided inputs on organising the festival in a safe way. “Many pujas had done their bit,” Ghosh said.

Though the high court order making all Durga puja pandals containment zones largely cleared the pandal-hopping crowd off the streets at least till Saptami, mixing, Roy points out, was on ever since Puja shopping started.

Festive fever

Early October had seen a pre-Puja shopping spree and experts had warned that crowded marketplaces could be the site of the virus spread.

Even though the footfall was not a patch on that of previous years, pujas like Sreebhumi, FD Block, BJ Block, AK Block and AE (Part I) drew sufficient crowds to make virologists see red. Not to mention how crowded restaurants like Oudh and 6 Ballygunge Place were all throughout the festive week.

While smaller and sporadic gatherings seem harmless, they are enough to lead to a spread. “We saw how friends and families gathered at homes and restaurants over the past weeks and many neither wore masks nor maintained social distancing,” said a doctor attached with the Infectious Diseases Hospital in Beleghata. “If even one in a group was an asymptomatic patient, he could have infected nearly everyone around.”

District directive

Health officials said irrespective of rural and urban pockets, the number of cases across North 24-Parganas has been rising steadily with more than 800 cases being reported every day.

The rise of infection in the Bidhannagar Municipal Corporation area reflects the same trend.

If on October 3, the total number of cases from the district was 53,441 and 641 fresh cases had been reported, on November 3, the corresponding number was 78,847 with 862 new cases. One can compare that to the September 15 situation, when the Puja shopping frenzy had not reached its peak. The total number of cases on the day had stood at 42,669 with 516 fresh cases reported in the district.

The state health department figures take into account the number of tests done from a particular area from different testing centres as well as people admitted in hospitals and Covid-19 safe houses. These figures are then collated with the reports collected by field workers in terms of door to door visits conducted by them.

The department, bracing for a rise in the number of cases this season, have added 50 high dependency unit (HDU) beds to the Chittaranjan National Cancer Institute (CNCI) in New Town, which is a corona treatment facility, thus doubling the previously available number of HDU beds.

Skipping tests

A dip in Covid-19 testing is worrying experts. “We have copies of prescriptions from doctors advising tests but those patients are not reflecting in the ICMR (Indian Council of Medical Research) portal. This means they are simply not coming for tests. The stigma and inconvenience associated with isolation are making them wary to be officially identified as Covid positive,” Dolui says.

Some doctors are also to blame. “They are the one who are simply prescribing medicines and asking people to rest at home without taking a test. ‘Test korlei positive asbe, so do not bother’ is what they are telling patients.”

This, he explains, means that the mildly symptomatic patients are getting cured in a few days on a few doses of Paracetamol and then resuming life, bypassing the stipulated period of isolation. “They are ending up spreading the infection. This is a dangerous trend.”

He shares the trend being observed in CT scan reports in pathology laboratories. “Earlier, four to five of every 20 chest scan reports indicated Covid. Now 11 or 12 of every 20 reports bear the indicative ground glass opacity. That means if the symptoms are there, maximum cases are turning out to be Covid,” Dolui said.

Testing at the Bidhannagar Municipal Corporation’s swimming pool facility has also gone down. “People are going for private tests in which swab collection takes place from home or are simply sitting at home with fever without testing,” a civic official said.

When testing started at the swimming pool in Central Park in July, the official recalled: “Such was the rush that sometimes we exceeded our initial daily quota of 30 by seven or eight and had to argue with Nilratan Sircar Hospital to get them to accept the extra samples. Now we are collecting way below capacity. On Monday, barely 19 people came.”

Even at Bidhannagar Sub-divisional Hospital, a senior official said, there has been no rise in the demand for tests over the last couple of months. “We are still conducting 70 to 80 tests daily,” he added.

The health department is holding sessions to train doctors on the treatment protocol to follow for patients approaching them for individual consultation. “Some doctors are making delays of four to five days in prescribing tests. We are stressing that tests should be done on the day itself when symptoms appear so that they do not infect more people. It is true that the viral load would be higher as the days progress but RT-PCR is a test sensitive enough to catch Covid strains as soon as symptoms appear,” Dolui said.

No takers for safe homes

Apathy towards moving to safe homes to quarantine oneself after testing positive has caused the closure of the safe home run by the Bidhannagar Municipal Corporation in Sector V.

The Royal Courtyard Banquet Hall, a Nicco Park property, which was being used for the purpose, was de-requisitioned by the corporation on October 6.

“There were no patients for almost a month. Those who are well to do stay in home isolation or get hospitalised. It was usually people from Duttabad and some slums of Rajarhat who were going there. Now NKDA has its own safe home and the situation has improved in Duttabad compared to the days when it was a containment zone. If there are any asymptomatic or mild cases needing institutional isolation, we are sending them to NBCC Square in New Town which is affiliated to CNCI,” said the civic health official.

NBCC Square has a capacity of 150. Even there, barely 20 or 25 beds are occupied, sources said. The NKDA’s safe home, opened in August, currently has eight patients in the 20-bed facility.

Masks off

Another practice that has caused the rise in infection is the tendency among some to wear the mask imperfectly or remove it at the slightest pretext.

Senior health department officials, in an October 29 meeting with the North 24-Parganas district administration, had warned that nearly half the people of the district were not adhering to the order of wearing masks and that this could result in a spurt in cases.

Health department officials told the sub-divisional and block development officers to immediately start enforcing the mask rule with the help of police. If needed, more people could be booked for not wearing masks and repeat offenders could be fined rigorously, the officials were told.

Health officials said the visitor turnout at pandals in parts of Bidhannagar, South Dum Dum, North Dum Dum, Baranagar, Kamarhati, Panihati, Barrackpore and Barasat had jumped on Ashtami and Navami and that while most pandal-hoppers wore masks, many were spotted without them.

Since the police was busy in law and order duty back then, there was not enough prosecution for violation of the mask rule.

Caution before Kali puja

Puja organisers, one hopes, have learnt a lesson after Durga puja and would be cautious before the festival of lights next week.

The most tragic case was reported this Monday from Baisakhi Abasan, where a lady who was on the all-woman organising committee, died in hospital. “This lady roamed the complex collecting subscriptions and attending meetings with other committee members without a mask. She would even berate others for wearing one,” said a resident. “We are all worried about who all may have got infected from her. The rest of the committee is in quarantine now.”

At BE (East), about half the core committee of their Durga puja was down with Covid-19 and it was well into the festival before most of them came out of quarantine.

Those affected point at a fellow-member who apparently moved about despite being down with fever. “It was much later that we realised she had been popping paracetamols to keep her fever under control. She moved about without wearing masks and one by one six out of the 12-odd women in our core committee were down with Covid,” says a member.

Before they knew it, there was community spread. “One of our members was hospitalised and the octogenarian father-in-law of another even lost his life,” said the lady, who is still weak after recovery.

This year BE (East)’s puja was organised by an all-women’s team and the challenges were compounded by the Covid crisis. “We had to get labourers to build the pandal over video call when most of them didn’t even have smart phones. Then no one was being able to go meet the advertisers who came to select spots to place banners; those of us supposed to get the idol from the sculptor were in quarantine…” recalls the member. “We couldn’t have pulled this through without the blessings of Ma Durga.”

The members are now preparing for Kali puja but they have a stern message for puja organisers across the township: “Please care for others. Wear masks at all times and do not leave home if you are unwell. Else you put all your neighbours’ lives at risk.”