The Trinamool Congress leadership is spending sleepless nights over the victory margin in Haroa though the party is confident of retaining the North 24-Parganas Assembly seat in the bypoll to be held on Wednesday.

The by-election to Haroa and five other seats — Sitai (SC), Madarihat (ST), Naihati, Medinipur, and Taldangra — were necessitated after the local MLAs successfully contested the Lok Sabha polls held earlier this year.

As campaigning for the bypolls ended on Monday evening, some ruling party leaders expressed concern over the victory margin, particularly in Haroa, where over 60 per cent of voters are from the minority community.

“Six months ago, in the Lok Sabha polls, we had a lead of over 1.10 lakh votes from the Haroa Assembly segment. In the 2021 Assembly polls, the margin was around 80,000. This time, our challenge is to ensure that the margin does not fall below 1.10 lakh votes in Haroa, where Muslim voters make up over 60 per cent,” said a TMC leader.

The ruling dispensation’s concern over the victory margin is significant becasue of multiple factors.

First, voter turnout typically drops during by-polls, and many voters in this constituency are migrant workers, who may not have returned to cast their votes.

The other factor, multiple sources in the TMC said, is the possibility of a potential split in the Muslim vote bank, which has traditionally supported Mamata Banerjee’s party.

The main Opposition in the region — the ISF, which has an alliance with the Left — has built its campaign on some core issues affecting the Muslim community and its main poll plank is Wakf property encroachments in the state with alleged connivance of the TMC.

“If our vote share significantly decreases compared to the last general election, the Opposition can create a narrative that the TMC is losing its hegemony among the minorities.... That’s why our challenge is to ensure the vote share does not fall below what we obtained in the last general election,” said a TMC source.

Haroa, part of the Basirhat Lok Sabha segment, has been a TMC stronghold. Haji Nurul Islam, who had won from the seat in 2021, had resigned to contest the Lok Sabha election from Basirhat and won the seat with a margin of over 3.33 lakh votes. Islam passed away in September and the party has fielded his second son, Rabiul Islam, as the TMC nominee for the bypoll.

The third factor, which is bothering the TMC, is the presence of a low-key BJP candidate, Bimal Das. “The BJP has kind of given a walkover, which has added to the advantage of ISF-Left nominee Piyarul Islam, an advocate by profession,” said a source.

During its campaign, the Left-ISF reached out to the people on the Wakf property issue, accusing local TMC leaders of encroaching on valuable properties belonging to Muslim charitable organisations.

“There are around 2,000 acres of Wakf properties in this area, and many valuable properties have been captured by ruling party leaders. This made it easier for us to connect with the minority community, especially in areas where the TMC accused the BJP of undermining Muslim rights,” said the CPM candidate. .

The Left-ISF alliance has also highlighted the Bengal government’s perceived failure to defend minority rights in the OBC reservation issue, currently pending in the Supreme Court.

“Both the TMC and BJP the are losing ground. The Left Front-supported ISF candidate is gaining support from Muslim and Hindu voters alike because of his focus on livelihood issues and democratic rights,” said Prasenjit Bose, joint convenor of the ISF-Left Front campaign committee in Haroa.

Although Bose did not clarify the livelihood issue, the TMC has factions vying for control over bheris (fisheries) in Haroa. The ISF has already reached out to TMC leaders who feel marginalised from pisciculture profits.

“People of Haroa are ready to vote against the corruption, torture, and oppression by the ruling TMC. If the people can cast their votes, Haroa will teach the TMC a lesson,” said Nawsad Siddique, ISF chairman and Bhangar MLA.

Rabiul Islam, the TMC candidate, acknowledged that the battle is going to be tough for a variety of reasons, including internal conflict in the party.

“The ISF-Left campaign won’t be an issue here. Yes, there was factional strife, as ours is a big party. But I can assure you that all factional leaders will unite to secure me a significant win,” said Rabiul.