The Assembly bypoll outcome in Jalpaiguri’s Dhupguri has given a section in Trinamul an opportunity to claim that the party’s prospects will be better if it fights the 2024 Lok Sabha elections without an alliance with INDIA constituents like the Congress and the Left.
The contest in Dhupguri was three-cornered, with Trinamul’s Nirmal Chandra Roy pitted against the BJP nominee and the Congress-backed CPM candidate. Nirmal won by a slender margin of 4,309 votes, defeating the BJP’s Tapasi Roy. Ishwar Chandra Roy, the CPM candidate, got 13,758 votes (around 6.52 per cent) and came third.
“Had we contested as part of the INDIA grouping, all the votes that the CPM candidate got would not have come to us.... A part of those votes, which you can call anti-Trinamul votes, could have gone to the BJP,” a Trinamul leader said.
“If there is a bipolar contest, a section of the anti-Trinamul votes may go to the BJP, giving them an extra edge,” added the senior Trinamul functionary in Jalpaiguri.
The leader pointed out that Nirmal won because of a vote swing of around 2 per cent. “Had there been no Left candidate, the outcome could have been different,” the source said.
Since the formation of the INDIA coalition and the beginning of discussions of a united fight against the BJP, there have been questions on whether the alliance constituents can arrive at a consensus on seat-sharing in Bengal in view of the past bitterness among them.
While the national leaders of the Left and the Congress were holding meetings with Mamata Banerjee at INDIA summits, the state leaders of the two parties, like the CPM’s Mohammad Salim and Bengal Congress president Adhir Ranjan Choudhury, repeatedly said they would continue their political fight against both Trinamul and the BJP.
Even while campaigning ahead of the Dhupguri bypoll, both the leaders openly criticised Mamata and Trinamul national general secretary Abhishek Banerjee.
The Trinamul camp, however, maintained silence on the Left and the Congress during the campaign.
“In Bengal, there is a strong sentiment against Trinamul among Left and Congress supporters. Trinamul supporters harbour similar feelings about the two parties.... In this situation, transfer of votes to a common candidate will not be easy,” said Soumen Nag, a political researcher in Siliguri.
“Though sections of Left and Congress supporters are ideologically committed to their party and are never going to vote for the BJP, you cannot say the same thing about everyone. The anti-Trinamul sentiment is very strong among a section and you cannot rule out the possibility of them voting the BJP nominee to squander the chance of Trinamul,” he added.
Multiple sources in Trinamul said that while the party remained committed to the idea of INDIA, they believed that the leadership was in no hurry to push for seat-sharing in the state as they were aware of the anti-incumbency mood among a section of voters. Trinamul has been in power for more than 12 years.
“Tactically, it is always better for us if the Opposition space remains divided.... If we contest alone, the anti-Trinamul votes will get divided, as has been the case in Dhupguri,” said a Trinamul strategist.
That the sceptical Trinamul leaders had a point was evident on Saturday as Suvendu Adhikari, the leader of the Opposition in the Assembly, urged Left and Congress supporters to vote for the BJP.
Adhikari, speaking at a public meeting in Howrah, repeated his “No Vote to Mamata” slogan and said the CPM and the Congress had helped Trinamul to wrest the Dhupguri seat from the BJP.
“What did you (CPM and Congress) do in Dhupguri? You took away 13,000 votes by nominating a retired teacher. Out of those 13,000 votes, 12,500 were Hindu votes. The minorities did not cast any vote for you. They clearly understand that they have to vote in favour of Mamata Banerjee to prevent Narendra Modi,” Adhikari said.
“I will request those who are at the grassroots to join us. You should not forget that you have been mercilessly beaten up by Trinamul goons in recent years. You may have a problem becoming a leader (of the BJP). You just attend our meetings and ensure that Trinamul doesn’t reap the benefits,” he added.
CPM politburo member Ram Chandra Dome did not see any merit in Adhikari’s logic.
“The BJP always treats a voter by his religion and that is why Suvendu Adhikari found Hindus among those who voted for us. We did not fight either to help Trinamul or the BJP. We put up our best possible fight in Dhupguri against Trinamul and the BJP,” Dome said.
‘Shortcomings’
Jalpaiguri Trinamul leaders are preparing a report after the win in Dhupguri to apprise the state leadership about certain shortcomings that they believe need to be addressed to augment the party’s support base in the constituency ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
According to party insiders, it has been found that a section of Trinamul leaders and workers in rural areas didn’t join the campaign in an active manner after being passed over in the panchayat polls.
Roads and other civic amenities need improvement, they said.
