Going into the business end of the IPL, the battle for the remaining three berths in the playoffs has intensified. Mumbai Indians have been the only team to qualify so far following Chennai Super Kings’ last-ball win over Kolkata Knight Riders on Thursday.
MI’s remaining fixtures are against Delhi Capitals and Sunrisers Hyderabad, and if they win at least one of them, they are assured of a top-two finish.
Losing to CSK has come as a killer blow to KKR, who can now reach only 14 points if they beat Rajasthan Royals in their final match of the league stage on Sunday. Too many ifs and buts will then come into play for KKR to progress in the tournament.
Kings XI Punjab’s loss to the Royals on Friday has come as a welcome relief for KKR.
For Eoin Morgan’s men to make the last-four stage without the net run-rate coming into play, many other results will have to go their way. KXIP should lose their remaining match, against CSK on Sunday. The Knights will also bank on Sunrisers Hyderabad winning only one of their two games in hand. KKR then can make it as the fourth team with 14 points, provided they overcome the Royals on Sunday evening in Dubai.
If KKR get to 14 points, they can also end up tied with three other teams — KXIP, SRH and possibly the loser of Delhi
Capitals versus Royal Challengers Bangalore. KKR have the lowest net run-rate (-0.467) among them, which will severely hamper their chances of qualifying.
But if KKR lose to the Royals, they stand eliminated.
KXIP were given a lifeline and have their fate in their own hands after KKR’s loss to CSK. If they now win against CSK, KXIP can get to 14 points. If it’s a 14-point tie with SRH (0.396) being one of the teams, then neither KKR nor KXIP stand any chance.
The Royals too have an outside chance of qualifying despite a poor run-rate of -0.377. For that to happen, they will have to avoid getting into a net run-rate tussle with the other teams.
Besides logging full points in their remaining match against KKR, they will have to hope that CSK continue their late-season winning run and triumph against KXIP. If SRH finish on 12 points, then the Royals will be through without net run-rate coming into play.
RCB and Capitals, both on 14 points, stand the best chance to qualify.
RCB currently are second on the points table with a marginally superior net run-rate than third-placed Capitals. They are to play SRH and DC in their last two league games and if they win both, they can finish in the top two.
If RCB win one, they will still qualify but a top-two slot will be dependent on the other results. Even if they lose both their matches, they will be through provided other results go their way and the two defeats don’t cause a big dent in their net run-rate.
Ditto for Capitals. Victories in their remaining matches against table-toppers MI and RCB will see them reach 18 points and finish in the top two. Even with one win they will advance but a top-two finish will be dependent on a host of other fixtures.
Two losses will also see them in the knockouts if the defeats don’t affect their net run-rate too much.
