India haven’t lost a Boxing Day Test in Melbourne since the 2014-15 tour to Australia. That game in December 2014, also Mahendra Singh Dhoni’s final red-ball appearance, ended in a draw. Since then, India have beaten Australia convincingly by 261 runs and eight wickets, respectively, at the MCG in 2018 and 2020.

In both those victories, India’s bowlers, led by Jasprit Bumrah, played a massive role in folding up the Australians. On this tour, with both sides locked 1-1 after three Tests, how the bowlers deliver on the drop-in MCG wicket will again be crucial to the teams’ fortunes.

Conditions will be different in Melbourne compared to Brisbane. The advantage, however, should be with the team that makes the best use of the seam and bowls a length targeting the top of the stumps, feels former Australia pacer Jason Gillespie.

Also, spin should have a say in the proceedings, especially on days IV and V due to the current hot weather conditions in Melbourne, Gillespie believes.

“Seam will play an important role for a large chunk of the game. The pitch will be a bit uneven later in the game and the forecast suggests it’s going to be hot during that period.

“So, the pitch will deteriorate, and there will be a fair amount of spin on days IV and V,” Gillespie, who resigned from the Pakistan head coach’s post earlier this month citing lack of clear communication from the country’s cricket board, told The Telegraph late on Sunday evening.

“The ideal length to bowl there, though, is top of the stumps. With the newer ball or to a new batsman, the knee roll length will be the best length to bowl for the seamers,” the former right-arm quick, who played 71 Tests, 97 ODIs and a T20I, said.

Now, how important is it to make the subtle adjustment of focusing on that channel outside off stump and targeting the stumps? “I think (bowling) the fourth-stump line should work if there is bounce and carry,” the 49-year-old said.

“As the bounce gets lower during the game, bowlers should look to hit the top of the off stump.”

For Australia, their shaky top order remains a worry with opener Usman Khawaja and No.3 Marnus Labuschagne continuing to look shaky and far from convincing, particularly before Bumrah. Besides, the home team will again be without one of their premier pacers, Josh Hazlewood, who’s ruled out of the remainder of this Border-Gavaskar Trophy because of a calf strain which he had sustained during the Gabba Test.

Hazlewood’s absence is certainly Australia’s loss, Gillespie acknowledged, though he added that replacement Scott Boland may again be a handful for the Indians.

“Hazlewood not being there is always a loss because he is such a fine bowler. But, Boland is a great replacement who bowls well at the MCG.

“His natural length, coming from a different trajectory to that of Hazlewood, can make it a bit tougher for the Indian batters. Particularly, when it comes to judging the length,” Gillespie pointed out.

Bumrah factor

Many in the cricket fraternity have spoken in detail about what separates Bumrah from the rest of the current generation quicks and makes him the best all-format bowler at present. Gillespie, however, preferred to keep his analysis on the ace speedster short and crisp.

“Bumrah’s release point is centimetres closer to the batter, which makes him quicker than what the speed gun may suggest. And yeah, his great wrist positioning allows for movement through the air either way.”