The clock was about to enter the 93rd and final minute at the St. Mary’s Stadium when Gabriel Jesus plucked out a sublime Kevin De Bruyne pass from mid-air and delicately dinked it over Alex McCarthy to score the game’s only goal with the last kick of the match. Jesus’s heroics saw Manchester City beat Southampton on the final day of the 2017-18 Premier League season and become the first team in the English top division to claim 100 points in a single league campaign. It was the acme for a City side that had proved unstoppable in the world’s most competitive league, with their irresistible brand of football dazzling one and all, conceived, coordinated and calibrated by the managerial genius of Pep Guardiola.
Cut to a little less than two years ahead and Man City find themselves more than a score of points behind runaway leaders Liverpool in this season’s Premier League. Rumours have been encircling about Guardiola’s departure for months, and with UEFA’s decision to ban City, the time may have come for Pep’s Blue Moon to set for good.
DOMESTIC DOMINANCE
Not only has Guardiola led Man City to back-to-back league championships over the last two seasons, but his team has played with a panache never before witnessed at the highest level in England.
In spite of Liverpool’s unprecedented assault on City’s hopes this season — which has basically guaranteed the EPL for the Reds — there can be no doubt that Pep Guardiola’s domestic impact has been transformative, with his possession-based style adapting diligently to complement the physically strenuous nature of the English game.
CONTINENTAL CATASTROPHE
Notwithstanding Pep’s remarkable English record, the primary motivation behind City’s acquisition of him in 2016 was to guide the club to their first UEFA Champions League triumph. In 2017, City sloppily surrendered a two-goal advantage from the first leg in the round of 16 to underdogs AS Monaco. A year later, City capitulated once again — this time at the hands of Liverpool in the last eight of the UCL. Most recently, City faced Tottenham in the quarter-finals and after a topsy-turvy tie worthy of a Hollywood film. Video Assistant Referee (VAR) became City’s scourge with Spurs progressing on away goals in an agonising finish for City supporters.
As for the current edition of the competition, City have been drawn against the most decorated side in UCL history, a resurgent Real Madrid, in what will most certainly be a make or break match for Guardiola.
CULT OR CHARACTER?
Not since 2011 has Guardiola lifted the Champions League, which has led some sceptics to argue that Pep cannot be a European champion without the mesmeric brilliance of a once-in-a-generation unit, as his Barcelona team at the time most definitely were. Pep’s high-pressing, possession-centric game plan has lent itself to criticism, with City struggling to implement it successfully in knock-out competitions like the Champions League, as a more counter-attacking and dynamic culture of football takes hold over Europe, championed by Jurgen Klopp at Liverpool.
But the prospect of Pep Guardiola’s exit from Man City cannot be entertained without focusing on a potential destination as a replacement. Considering Pep’s intense involvement in shaping the ethos of his previous teams, it would be scandalous to suggest that he could manage any of their rival sides anytime soon. This would naturally rule out jumping ship to a Premier League team, opening the doors to a possible exploration into uncharted territory. In this sense, Juventus would be a logical alternative. Serie A is the only elite European league Pep is yet to conquer and foraying into Italy to help Juve’s own bid for the Champions League is enticing. Equally intriguing could be a switch into the relatively unfamiliar world of international management, something that would give Pep more recovery time and allow him to diversify as a coach.
If Pep Guardiola is to make himself available on the market, there will be no shortage of takers. Pep could easily pick out the most appealing option and sail off to write a new chapter in his coaching manual of excellence. Having Guardiola in the hot seat not only guarantees glamour and glory but also heritage — the laying of the foundations of a footballing empire that is a blueprint for sustained success. But is that what Pep really wants now? Will staying in Manchester and seeing City through their slump not be an epic adventure in its own right? Would a European victory on a return to the big time with City not feel that much sweeter? Were Pep to stay, the entire City framework would be galvanised, which might even help the club hold onto their key players during their European exodus.
Of course, Pep could have it both ways should he shepherd City to victory in the Champions League this season, before starting afresh with a new project next year. But if City are to succumb yet again in the pursuit of their holy grail, the choice for Pep would be one between cult and character, between personal legacy and collective commitment. As someone who has admired Pep not only for his tactics but also for his temperament, I would prefer to see Pep remain at the Etihad, fully aware that the whimsical footballing gods may have a different wish.
How will Manchester City’s UEFA ban shake things up?: Reigning English champions Manchester City have been banned from UEFA club competitions for the next two seasons, having committed “serious breaches” of financial regulations. City have been punished by UEFA for overstating sponsorship revenue and break-even information in accounts submitted between 2012 and 2016. In what is undoubtedly the most radical penalty faced by any club powerhouse in recent times, City’s fate could trigger a domino effect with the following consequences:
A litmus test of loyalty: Not only is the future of City manager Pep Guardiola up in the air, but some of the club’s best players could also be heading for the exit, considering the Sky Blues will not be enjoying any Champions League action over the next two campaigns. Should suitors line up, it would be difficult for the Citizens to retain the services of superstars like Raheem Sterling, Kevin De Bruyne, and Bernardo Silva, all of whom have transitioned from prodigies to world-class talents at the Etihad Stadium. Sergio Aguero, the club’s all-time top goal-scorer, had vowed not to leave Manchester without winning the Champions League, a promise that seems destined to be deferred, if not denied altogether.
Pocket punch: Besides the ban, Man City have also been asked to pay a fine to the tune of 30 million euros, which combined with the evaporation of revenues from an absence in Europe’s premier club competition, could leave City high and dry. Not engaging in the continent will invariably affect City’s brand value, with sponsorships and endorsements likely to plummet. All this means City would have to scrupulously balance their books, which in turn would lead to the off-loading of some of the club’s highest earners, all the while preventing top-draw talents from entering.
The great English scramble: UEFA’s co-efficient policy awards England’s Premier League four spots in the Champions League, but with City out of the picture yet set to finish inside the top four domestically, the fifth-placed Premier League side would be guaranteed a place in next season’s UCL. This provides an intriguing subplot to the English season’s climax, giving the likes of Tottenham, Manchester United and Arsenal a huge motivation to pull up their socks. At the time of writing, Sheffield United sit in fifth place.
A bullseye on the big boys: UEFA’s announcement of the ban is a clear indication on part of the administrative body that they are in no mood to mess around with transgressors of their model of Financial Fair Play (FFP). Intriguingly, City themselves had been expecting some sort of reprimand (though not of the scale they got), and are not the only European superpower under UEFA’s financial scanner. With the intricate mechanism of FFP and an ever-vigilant press (City’s shortcomings were initially exposed by German newspaper Der Spiegel), Europe’s heavy spenders must exercise utmost caution, none more so than the extravagant Paris Saint-Germain.
Deus ex machina: All is not lost for Manchester City, at least not yet. City have a right to appeal UEFA’s ban to the Court of Arbitration of Sport, and are expected to do so at the earliest. Additionally, City could also knock on the doors of the Swiss Supreme Court, considering they suspect foul play on part of a “prejudicial” UEFA, whom City have accused of acting as judge, jury, and executioner. The entire litigation saga has the potential to overturn the ban. Moreover, City could be allowed to compete in Europe if legal proceedings are not concluded in time for the start of the 2020-21 season in a remote but not impossible scenario.
