Is this the dawn of a demographic nightmare? All over the world, countries are now confronting population stagnation and a fertility bust. Falling fertility rates — 83 nations comprising 46 per cent of the global population, including every single country in Europe, now have a replacement fertility rate below 2.1 births per woman — combined with the death and devastation caused by the pandemic threaten to upend how societies are organized. Demographers predict a ‘demographic winter’ wherein by the latter half of the century, or even earlier, the global population will enter a sustained decline for the first time. Arguably, a planet with fewer people could ease the pressure on resources and slow down the destructive impact of climate change. But the census announcements from China and the United States of America, which showed the slowest rates of population growth in decades, point to difficult adjustments ahead. In a world where the median age of the population would rise over time, with fewer young people available to work relative to the increasing number of retirees, wealth would be generated at a slower rate and poverty would grow. Those economic struggles would fuel social unrest and further discourage people from having children. To counter this looming crisis, Russia and Italy are offering financial incentives to improve fertility rates; China, in a radical u-turn, has instituted a three-child policy. In Japan, where adult diapers now outsell the ones for babies, municipalities are shrinking on account of falling populations. In Sweden, some cities have shifted resources from schools to elderly care.
These strategies are undoubtedly a response to the changes in global demography. That bit is fairly evident. But what get obfuscated quite often are the tensions arising out of these transitions. For instance, a chasm seems to be opening up between individual choice and collective responsibility, between autonomy and altruism. Nation states are announcing incentives to increase birth rates at a time when young parents are increasingly unwilling to shoulder the responsibilities of large families on account of economic, social and climatic challenges. If history is any guide, individual choice usually wins: no country with a serious slowdown in population growth has managed to significantly raise its fertility rate even with the lure of lucre and social benefits. This insularity could mean greater strain on the ethics of collective responsibility.
