As 2023 comes to a close, it is clear that war is, once again, the central feature of inter-state relations. Force is not only instrumental in the contemporary global order but its potency is also a reminder that the anarchic nature of international politics continues to exert pressure on the behavior of states. Institutions, markets and norms offer no respite; the strong continue to do as they wish while the weak keep suffering. The new normal today is the age-old normal, which the international system seems to have forgotten at its own peril.
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has reached a stalemate with the Ukrainian counter-offensive failing to produce a breakthrough. The battle lines are entrenched into a deadlock with winter knocking and both sides are increasingly relying on drones, hoping for a decisive shift that is unlikely to come anytime soon. As Vladimir Putin campaigns for another term as Russia’s president after two decades in power, he is promising to make Russia a “sovereign, self-sufficient” power in the face of the West.
For Ukraine, political and diplomatic challenges are mounting. Although the European Union has decided to open membership negotiations with Ukraine despite opposition from Hungary, its leaders failed to agree on the much-needed aid package for Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukranian president, made a trip to Washington DC recently but did not succeed in persuading the bitterly divided Republicans to support a $61 billion military aid package for Ukraine. This aid is critical for Ukraine if Kyiv is to continue to stand up to Moscow but the United States of America wants a concrete price tag and a clearly defined goal.
Putin is thus certain that he only has to wait for Western unity to completely collapse. As a consequence, he has further hardened his stance on an unconditional surrender by Ukraine. Putin may enjoy this moment but he has hollowed out the Russian economy with serious losses in men and material.
As if the war in Eurasia was not enough, Hamas’s atrocities on October 7 have unleashed the dogs of war in the Middle East. Israel has gone full throttle into war mode but it is beginning to lose the support of its closest allies. With France calling for an “immediate and durable truce” and the United Kingdom and Germany calling for a “sustainable ceasefire,” pressure is mounting on Israel to reverse course as the civilian toll rises by the day. Israel has refused to budge so far, calling ceasefire an error which would be a gift to Hamas. Domestic churn in Israel is also accelerating, especially after the Israel Defence Forces accidentally killed three Israeli hostages during its operations in Gaza.
But the most critical fault line for Israel is the growing rift between Tel Aviv and the Joe Biden administration, which is under intense pressure from within his own party to moderate Israeli military behavior. The American president has made his preferences clear by suggesting that Israel is starting to lose global support over its “indiscriminate bombing” of Gaza. Growing domestic unease in the US will make Biden’s task of continuing to provide a diplomatic shield to Israel much more difficult in the coming days.
The window is narrowing for Benjamin Netanyahu, whose endgame includes the complete annihilation of Hamas as a military and governing force. Yet the ideology of Hamas is gaining more resonance, with support for it rising in the West Bank as per recent polls. The Israeli government seems to lack a credible plan to see this escalation through to a logical conclusion. Israeli actions might end up reinforcing the very forces it is trying to marginalise or degrade.
These conflicts come at a time when the power contestation between the US and China is beginning to sharpen. In more ways than one, the cockpit of this struggle is the Indo-Pacific where tensions continue to be at an all-time high. The use of force is now an everyday feature of inter-state engagements. This global disorder demands a collective leadership that is nowhere to be seen. This means that the world would be welcoming 2024 with a distinct foreboding where the assumptions of the past may no longer be enough to ascertain the trends of the future.
Harsh V. Pant is Professor of International Relations, King's College London
