The poll pundits had spoken first. The people of India spoke next, silencing their punditry. The results of the elections for the 18th Lok Sabha have torpedoed the predictions by the experts of exit polls that had given Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party yet another commanding mandate. Even though the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance has the numbers to form the government, the BJP fell well short of the lofty tally that Mr Modi and the party had set for itself. The Opposition INDIA bloc, especially the Congress, ridiculed and dismissed by Mr Modi and his peers, large segments of the supine media fraternity and psephologists, has performed creditably. There are whispers that attempts have been made to wean away some of the NDA’s allies — Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu were the potential targets — so that the INDIA bloc gets a shot at government formation.

The real winner, however, is neither the NDA nor INDIA. That honour, as always, goes to the people of India. And the message from the aam aadmi has been one against hubris and arrogance that have undoubtedly been features of Mr Modi’s style of functioning. Ordinary Indians have reminded Mr Modi that making tall claims — his shrill war cry of chaar sau paar is an example — without meeting the basic needs of the common man would not go unpunished at the hustings. Bread and butter issues — unemployment, rise in prices, et al — have trumped the ruse of polarisation, division and religiosity that the BJP sought to employ to reap electoral dividends. Uttar Pradesh, which turned all poll projections on their heads, best captures this trend. The BJP and its allies had hoped that they would be able to gain electorally after the inauguration of the Ram mandir. Yet, the Samajwadi Party and the Congress, fighting together on the plank of livelihood and economic issues, punctured their principal rival’s vote. Parts of Maharashtra, Punjab, Rajasthan, and Haryana, to a certain extent, states that have been witnessing distress among agrarian communities, citizens dependent on jobs in the army as well as socially disadvantaged groups anxious about the future of the reservation policy, have expressed their disapproval for the BJP’s policies and
political antics.

The people’s verdict should also be read as a testament to Indian democracy’s resilience. The erosion of the democratic ethos, characterised by the withering of institutions that are supposed to function as the vanguard of democracy, had gathered pace in the last decade that corresponded with the political ascendancy of Mr Modi. This particular verdict should, it is to be hoped, embolden these institutions, especially the media, to serve the cause of democracy, once again. It would be interesting to see whether the reduced mandate has a tempering effect on Mr Modi during his third term. The prime minister is used to leading domineering governments with brutal majorities. A resurgent Opposition along with a possible realignment in power equations within the BJP’s pecking order may reduce the leverage that Mr Modi has had thus far, serving as a necessary check and balance to his majoritarian agenda. A vibrant Opposition and a Central government cut to size could augur well for the future of federalism and democracy in India.