India is the most populous country in the world. So a fall in India’s total fertility rate — the average number of children born per woman — might appear desirable. It is, but there are associated challenges. A recent report in The Lancet has indicated that India’s TFR has dipped to 1.29, far lower than the replacement rate of 2.1. A falling TFR leads to a rapidly depleting working-age population. At the current rate, by 2050, one in five Indians will be a senior citizen while there will be fewer younger people to take care of them. Currently, India’s health policies are focused on family planning, maternal and child health and arresting communicable diseases. Yet, with the increase in the number of older adults, the incidence of non-communicable diseases is al­re­ady outpacing infectious diseases. As per the World Health Organization, nearly 60% of deaths in India can be attributed to non-commu­ni­cable diseases. Their share will continue to rise, demanding a significant policy shift towards preventing and managing morbidities like diabe­tes, cardiovascular diseases and cancer, not to mention reducing associated healthcare expenditu­res. A low TFR will also pose fiscal challenges: in­ternational trends show that as the population ages, there is a job crunch with both the old and the young competing for a limited number of opportunities.

All this only goes to show that the battle against population growth is layered and ought to be fought in tandem with economic, nutritional, environmental and social uncertainties that disincentivise people from having children. India’s situation has been made peculiar by other obstacles. There is, for instance, an imbalance in TFR among states — Bihar’s TFR, for instance, is around 3, almost double the national average. The rise of polarisation has also resulted in the creation of fictitious narratives attributing population growth to minority groups, a claim that flies in the face of bona fide demographic data. Instead of pandering to such mischief, it might be instructive for India to look at what other nations are doing to arrest the dip in TFR which is a global phenomenon. Two-thirds of European countries have introduced measures like baby bonuses, tax incentives and paid parental leave with varying degrees of success. India must explore whether these and other incentives would be applicable to the Indian realities.