The year, 2021, is about to end in just three days. It has been an interesting year in many ways for Pakistani politics.

The year started with the Opposition alliance, the Pakistan Democratic Movement, making waves in Pakistani politics. As written on these pages earlier, the government was taken aback by the victory of the joint Opposition candidate in the Senate elections. Yousaf Raza Gilani was elected senator from Islamabad in March after he defeated the ruling party’s federal finance minister, Abdul Hafeez Shaikh. The defeat shook the government circles and led to the prime minister, Imran Khan, taking the vote of confidence in Parliament. The defeat also led to Shaikh’s ouster as finance minister. An interim finance minister eventually took charge before a new one, Shaukat Tareen, was brought in. The election for Chairman of the Senate took place in March as well. Sadiq Sanjrani, the candidate who was already serving as chairman senate and was backed by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, won the election by six votes: Sanjrani got 48 votes while Gilani got 42. Gilani could have won the election had the seven votes that were polled in his favour not been rejected on a technicality. However, this eventually led to the ‘breakup’ of the PDM. Gilani became the leader of the Opposition in the Senate, a position promised by the joint Opposition alliance to the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) candidate. A dispute arose between the Pakistan Peoples Party and the PML(N) as Gilani had secured votes from members of the ruling party’s coalition partner, the Balochistan Awami Party. In the same month, the former president, Asif Ali Zardari, had asked the PML(N) leader, Nawaz Sharif, to return to Pakistan and lead a joint struggle against the government as the PML(N) and other parties of the joint Opposition alliance had urged the PPP and other parties to resign from the assemblies en masse. The PPP, however, was not in favour of this move. Later, the PDM issued show-cause notices to the PPP and the Awami National Party for violating the alliance’s discipline. This eventually led to the rupturing of the joint Opposition alliance. From then onwards, we saw a war of words between the PML(N) and the PPP over one thing or another.

This was a good omen for the government, which had been struggling on the economic front. The Opposition was also giving it a tough time. But, as some analysts say, the PTI government does not need an Opposition as it manages to do its rivals’ job itself.

In October, all the talk of the PTI government being on the ‘same page’ as the Establishment went through an upheaval on some key appointments. While the issue was eventually settled, many believe it has led to some tension between the government and powerful quarters. The Opposition is also said to be hedging its bets, and there are speculations that many parties are in touch with the Establishment to secure a ‘deal’. But nobody exactly knows the details and also how all this will all come about, if it does.

Some say that the next elections will see the PPP, the Pakistan Muslim League (Qaid-e-Azam), important independents and some members from the ruling party forge an electoral alliance in order to have a go at the federal government. Others say that since the PTI government could not deliver on the economic front, it will suffer in the next general elections and the PML(N), which seems to be the most popular party in Punjab, would have a chance at forming a government in Punjab as well as in the Centre. But there is a catch when it comes to the PML(N).

Many are of the view that the PML(N) will not be able to strike a deal with the powerful quarters unless the party agrees on the name of Nawaz’s brother, Shahbaz Sharif, as the next prime ministerial candidate. In common parlance, there is a war of ‘bayaania’ (narrative) between the Maryam camp and the Shahbaz camp. Maryam Nawaz leads the anti-Establishment camp in the PML(N) while Shahbaz is seen as someone who believes in reconciliation, is seeking a middle path, and does not believe in any collusions. Many in the PML(N) say that Shahbaz has a lot of support within the party but because Nawaz Sharif is the leader and the people vote for Nawaz, Shahbaz will not do anything against his elder brother’s wishes. In the end, it will be Nawaz Sharif who will decide on the matter. This is why there is speculation that a backdoor channel has been opened in order to convince him. Rumours say that if a deal is eventually struck with Nawaz, it will lead to the cases against him being dropped and his name cleared of all charges that he has been convicted of. Well, these are speculations and, as I wrote earlier, nobody knows what is going on exactly. Some believe that those at the helm of affairs want the PML(N) to make a comeback because Pakistan’s economy has suffered a lot during this government’s tenure. They want an experienced party to lead the country.

Then there are talks of an in-house change in Parliament. This basically means a vote of no-confidence against the prime minister. This does not seem likely at the moment as the government has the majority with help from its coalition partners. But the numbers can be managed.

Then there is another speculation — that the PTI government would win the next elections as well because the Establishment does not trust the PML(N).

Whatever happens, we will see it play out in the next few months. But this is not how it should be ideally. Pakistan has a democratic set-up, which must complete its five-year term. There should not be any conspiracy to dislodge the prime minister or the government. The people of Pakistan should decide whom they want to elect. No ‘decision’ should be imposed on the people. Democracy in Pakistan will weather out everything as long as all governments complete their tenures and elections take place on time

Here is hoping for a year with less political intrigue in 2022. Happy New Year!

Mehmal Sarfraz is a journalist based in Lahore; mehmal.s@gmail.com