I was recently browsing the World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal where one can explore historical and projected climate data and impacts by country or by watershed. I looked up information for India and its neighbours where large sections of the workforce depend on agriculture, one of the most at-risk economic sectors owing to climate change. Between 25% (Sri Lanka) and 69% (Nepal) of the workforce is engaged in agriculture. For India, this figure is 43% as of 2019. Storms, floods, droughts, landslides, coastal erosion and glacial lake outburst floods are the most frequent natural hazards impacting South Asian countries. With continued global warming, the intensity and the frequency of these hazards will rise, affecting at least 1.9 billion people.
The planet will continue to warm for generations because CO2 persists in the atmosphere for 300-1,000 years. By 2080-2100, with an average 2.7 °Celsius temperature rise globally, about one-third of the world’s population could be outside the thermal habitability niche. According to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, every additional 1°C of warming could enhance the global risk of involuntary displacement due to flood events by 50%. Human societies must thus adapt by moving away from locations where maintaining livelihood activities and habitability is becoming a challenge. But such movement must increase well-being, reduce inequality, and promote sustainability. Failing which, it would amount to maladaptation.
The ND-GAIN Country Index has been ranking countries since 1995 on their vulnerability to climate change and readiness to improve resilience. Vulnerability measures a country’s exposure and sensitivity to the negative impact of climate change. Exposure is the degree to which a system is exposed to significant climate change from a biophysical perspective and is independent of socio-economic context. Sensitivity is the extent to which a country is dependent upon a sector negatively affected by climate hazard, or the proportion of its population particularly susceptible to a climate change hazard. Currently, about 40% of the workforce in South Asia is engaged in the climate-sensitive agriculture sector.
The Readiness score captures a country’s ability to leverage investments and convert them to adaptation actions by considering economic, governance and social components. Strong national economies create favourable investment conditions. More corporate resources can flow into vulnerable sectors when governments are open to doing fair business. Governments can encourage investments through maintaining political stability and safety. Societies that have solid education systems up to and through the tertiary level, a fair rule of law, and adequate information and communication technologies are obviously more attractive for corporate investment. The readiness score and the adaptation rank can and do vary over time.
Sri Lanka moved from rank 94 in 2002 to 123 in 2012. Similarly, in 2010, India was ranked at 85, but 143 in 2014. In 1995, Nepal was ranked at 137 but slipped to 152 in 2004. Pakistan was ranked 96th in 2013 but moved to the 157th spot in 2018. In 2013, Bangladesh’s rank was 105 but by 2015, it went down to 171. Currently, out of 185 countries ranked, among India and its neighbours, Bhutan ranks the highest in terms of readiness at 62. The next most ready country is Sri Lanka (99), followed by India (104), Nepal (116), Pakistan (146) and Bangladesh (167); all beyond the second quartile.
Readiness has to be prioritised in South Asia. Governments must address resource constraints, inadequate infrastructure, civil conflicts, droughts, superstorms, and other challenges that are exacerbated by the changing climate. Business leaders also must make informed decisions. Given that no country has control over the degree to which a system is exposed to significant climate change from a biophysical perspective, India and its neighbours would do well to invest heavily in governance institutions and education and innovation while working towards reducing social inequality in all forms. This is no longer a matter of choice.
Anamitra Anurag Danda is an environmentalist. Views are personal
