Bangladesh is poised to hold elections in less than two weeks to choose its next government. Yet, even before the first vote has been cast, questions over the legitimacy of the exercise threaten to destabilise the country’s democratic journey. India, too, risks getting yanked into the maelstrom of Bangladesh’s domestic politics unless it is careful. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed appears to be headed for a comfortable win in the election. But the victory may well be pyrrhic: the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, the biggest Opposition force, is boycotting the January 7 polls, making the election less of a referendum on the incumbent government’s performance and more of a test of the country’s democracy itself. Ms Wajed has been in power since 2009 and the mounting scale of protests against her rule in recent months suggests that many in Bangladesh would have liked to have seen a meaningful contest in 2023 as opposed to what is now effectively being seen by several analysts as a one-horse race. To be clear, the BNP decision to boycott the vote — whatever its arguments for the move — does not help Bangladeshi democracy.

It is the government of Bangladesh, however, that is most answerable to its people. Crackdowns on political opponents, violent attacks on protesters and multiple arrests have eroded the sheen of liberal democratic values that the ruling Awami League has long, at least officially, espoused. India has traditionally felt more comfortable with the Awami League than with the BNP, which has dallied with Islamist parties and groups critical of New Delhi. Unlike past elections, India has been careful not to be seen as overtly backing the Awami League. Yet, in Bangladesh, the perception that New Delhi stands with the ruling government remains widespread. If the popular mood sours further against the party in power, India will almost certainly also feel the backlash — as has happened in recent elections elsewhere in South Asia. Meanwhile, China’s economic influence in Bangladesh has also only grown under the Awami League government, so Ms Wajed’s return to power will not strengthen India’s hand against its foremost geopolitical rival in the region. The United States of America has formally opposed the manner in which the election is being held. India should not endorse the US’s sentiments. However, it must take steps to insulate itself from the possibility of any political upheaval that could follow in Bangladesh. It is time for India to start setting red lines for its Bangladesh policy.