The Indian election season rolls on. The assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir have concluded but the poll bugle has now been blown for Vidhan Sabha elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. A clutch of assembly by-elections has also been announced for as many as 48 seats along with two parliamentary constituencies across 15 states. Taken together, the outcome of these mixed contests could, the pundits argue, provide an indication of the direction of the prevailing political winds. The two principal competitors, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance and the Opposition coalition, INDIA, which features the Congress as the dominant force, would be keen to wrest the advantage.

Of all the assembly elections, the one in Maharashtra would be watched the most. This is not only because of the size of the Maharashtra legislature which, with 288 seats, has a bearing on national politics. The electoral field in the state on this occasion is markedly splintered, thereby adding to the complexity and the public fascination. The splintered turf aptly features splintered parties, with the erstwhile Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party both suffering splits, thanks to the BJP’s machinations. The upcoming polls would thus be a test of their respective legitimacies. The BJP, buoyed by its unexpected triumph in Haryana, would be eager to improve its performance after a disheartening showing in the Lok Sabha elections. Its main objective would be to win power on its own in Maharashtra, thereby diminishing its dependence on allies and cutting them to size. The Congress would be hoping to take forward the momentum that was gained by the national Opposition in the general election. What makes these goals challenging for the parties is the medley of issues at play. The deepening agrarian distress is undoubtedly one of the chief factors that would decide the poll results, especially in Maharashtra’s hinterland. The caste cauldron is on the boil too, with the Marathas, other backward classes and the Dhangar community pressing forward with their respective — conflicting — demands. The public reception of freebies — the ruling Mahayuti government is attempting to contain the disenchantment among different social constituencies by raining down rewdis — would be another decisive factor. This convergence of an entire range of different causal factors with the upcoming election makes Maharashtra the state to watch.